'Blue Revolution': How a dwindling BSP triggered big shift in Congress strategy

Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra were seen adorned in blue during protests outside Parliament during the Winter Session in 2024. (File photo: PTI)

The blue flag and the elephant, symbolic elements that long remained the identity of the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party and symbolized the Dalit resistance, have slowly found their way into the Congress' scheme of things. While the elephant remains where it was -- with Mayawati -- the blue scarf and flags are fast emerging as the weapon of choice for the Congress party and its leaders, including Priyanka and Rahul Gandhi.

Having tasted a certain degree of success with its nationwide 'Samvidhan Bachao' campaign, virtually painting the BJP as a party averse to reservations, the Congress has now launched the "Jai Bapu, Jai Bhim, Jai Samvidhan" campaign with a focus on wooing the Scheduled Caste population nationwide. The Congress hopes that the initiative, based on its Lok Sabha election 2024 campaign, will resonate strongly with the Dalits and also provide it a good ground to rebuild its alliance with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.

The alliance between the two parties, which proved crucial in painting a narrative against the BJP, gained significantly and improved its tally to 43 Lok Sabha seats in the state. While the SP won 37 seats, the Congress rose from a solitary seat in 2019 to six seats in the general elections last year.

There is significant thought that appears to have gone into this unique campaign by the Congress. When the Opposition accused Union Home Minister Amit Shah of "insulting" Dalit icon BR Ambedkar during the Winter Session of Parliament, Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, turned up to protest dressed in a blue t-shirt instead of his hallmark white.

The slogans raised by Congress leaders on subsequent days featured "Jai Bhim" prominently, indicating that it had carefully found its way into Congress' political strategy. The "Jai Bhim" slogan refers to Ambedkar, the tallest Dalit leader in Indian politics. Historically, Dalit voters have been staunch supporters of the BSP, forming its core base across Uttar Pradesh and the Hindi heartland including states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Delhi.

While the Congress-SP faced some success in UP in the Lok Sabha elections, subsequent polls in Haryana and Maharashtra saw Dalit voters leaning back towards the BJP. Congress strategists believe this indicates a lack of stable allegiance among Dalit voters after the BSP's decline, making them a key demographic to target.

In line with this, Congress has launched a nationwide campaign portraying Home Minister Amit Shah's recent remarks as an insult to BR Ambedkar. The party has intensified its efforts with events such as the upcoming January 26 programme at Ambedkar's birthplace in Mhow, Madhya Pradesh. Prominent Congress leaders, including party president Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, are expected to be present at the event.

While the SP continues to lean on its PDA (pichda, dalit, alpasankhyak) strategy to consolidate its voter base in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has managed to make inroads among Dalits, thereby causing friction with the BSP. In fact, observers see Mayawati’s aggressive stance against Congress a result of her perception that Dalit votes may have partially shifted to SP but remain unsettled, leaving Congress as a viable alternative.

While BSP leaders remain wary of Congress's growing influence, Mayawati has dismissed Congress's efforts as theatrics, and her nephew Akash Anand came down on the grand old party for turning BSP’s "Blue Revolution" into a fashion statement.

An intensifying campaign by the Congress is also likely to see a bitter battle for the Dalit vote bank even as the BSP strives to remain relevant and counter the challenge posed by Congress and other parties.