Bihar's migrant vote emerges new X-factor this election: Who will bring them home?

Passengers aboard a train as they travel to their hometowns ahead of the 'Chhath Puja' at Anand Vihar railway station in New Delhi. (File: PTI)

A crucial but often overlooked bloc has emerged as the new favourites for all political parties in Bihar as the Assembly elections in the state draw closer. From the ruling National Democratic Alliance to the Mahagathbandhan, political parties are scrambling to woo the state's migrant voters who could prove crucial in a closely contested election.

Estimated to be in the range of 30–32 lakh, migrants who return home to cast their ballots in Bihar could tilt the balance in key constituencies in an election where every vote counts.

According to Bihar's Economic Survey 2024, over 3 crore people from Bihar live and work outside the state. Of these, about 50 lakh are registered voters, and roughly half of them manage to return to vote. Delhi-NCR hosts the largest share of migrants (12%), followed by Gujarat (8%), Maharashtra (7%), Haryana (5%), and Punjab (4%).

Chhath Puja and the poll gap

This year, the Chhath festival (October 25–28, 2025) preceded the first phase of polling on November 6, leaving a gap of 10–odd days. Many workers may not be able to stay back that long. Analysts believe this could dent the NDA's advantage, as Mahagathbandhan supporters who are primarily involved in informal jobs may have greater flexibility to stay put and vote.

Yet, history tells a different story. In 2005 and 2010, higher migrant turnout after the Chhath Puja helped NDA secure victories. In 2020 too, migrant voters contributed to a 6% increase in voter turnout and an NDA win with 125 seats.

The outreach blitz

BJP's "Mission Pravasi Bihari" is already in motion. The party has been engaging migrants in 70 cities across Delhi, Gujarat, and Maharashtra since July. It has set up travel and financial aid networks to help them return home and vote. Around 54 senior leaders and hundreds of ground workers are coordinating special trains, buses, and even company leave arrangements. It does help that a majority of Bihar's migrants are stationed in states where the NDA is in power.

JD(U) is also targeting EBC and women migrants, promoting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's welfare schemes like free electricity and self-employment support.

The RJD, led by its CM face Tejashwi Yadav, is appealing emotionally by promising to end migration altogether by ensuring "a job in every home." Its Voter Adhikar Yatra seeks to keep migrants engaged till polling day.

Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas) is banking on its Dalit and Paswan community vote, with a focus on the estimated 46 lakh migrants from his caste. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj has positioned migration itself as a political issue, pledging to end it within a year.

Caste still rules?

Even miles away from home, caste remains the compass for most migrant voters. Surveys suggest 72% vote along caste lines before considering development or employment issues. Yadav organisations in Delhi-NCR have declared support for RJD while Kurmi groups have backed Nitish Kumar.

Kushwaha associations in Gujarat are tilting toward RJD. Dalit networks in Maharashtra have aligned with Chirag Paswan.

However, resources and coordination may decide who benefits most from the migrant vote. With a stronger organisational network, superior funding, and central support, the NDA still holds an edge but Mahagathbandhan's sharper messaging on migration could make the battle tighter than ever.