Bihar Election 2025: Survey pegs Prashant Kishor as kingmaker, shows NDA-MGB heading into cliffhanger fight

A new survey has predicted that Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor could emerge as a kingmaker in the coming Bihar elections. (File Photo: PTI)

Bihar Election 2025 Opinion Poll prediction: Prashant Kishor, the poll-strategist-turned-politician and founder of the Jan Suraaj Party, could emerge as the X-factor in the Bihar elections slated to be held in October-November this year, a fresh opinion poll survey has predicted.

As per the Vote Vibe survey results released on September 14, the ruling National Democratic Alliance in Bihar is locked in an extremely tight race with the Mahagathbandhan of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Left parties with 36.2 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for the NDA as compared to 35.8 per cent who said they would vote for the Grand Alliance.

The findings suggest that the election outcome could depend heavily on voter turnout and last-minute swings. Caste arithmetic remains critical for either side with youth mobilization crucial for the Mahagathbandhan's chances.

The anti-incumbency seen in the July edition of the same survey showed similar levels of anti-incumbency (48% in Sept vs 48.5% in July) against the incumbent BJP-JD(U) government led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The pro-incumbency factor, however, saw an increase from 18.3 per cent in July to 27.1 per cent in September.

A demographic break-up of the survey data showed that young voters (18-24) showed the strongest anti-incumbency (57%) and appeared to favour the MGB more while older voters (45+)were more supportive of the NDA.

The MGB continues to draw maximum support from Muslims with a resounding 70 per cent of the respondents from the community favouring the Mahagathbandhan as compared to 5 per cent who said they would vote for the NDA.

On the other hand, the NDA is likely to draw a majority of the support from upper castes with 55 per cent saying they would vote for the ruling alliance while 15 per cent said they favoured the MGB. The split in OBC vote appears more pronounced with 43 per cent expressing support for the NDA as compared to 36 per cent who said they would side with the Mahagathbandhan.

Like upper castes, the survey shows strong support for the NDA among the Scheduled Castes with 43 percent saying they support the NDA as compared to 25 per cent who said they prefer the MGB.

The survey also showed Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party emerging as a possible third pole in the Bihar elections which have traditionally been a bipolar battle. As per the survey, the JSP could emerge as a potential kingmaker with an estimated vote share of 8.7 per cent.

The rise of the Prashant Kishor factor in Bihar could also prove decisive in constituencies where there is a close contest between the two primary contenders, the survey adds. As many as 13.70 per cent of the respondents also chose Kishor as their choice when it came to the question of who they would like to see as the new Bihar Chief Minister.

RJD's Tejashwi Yadav, however, maintains his position as the most popular face to become chief minister, the survey findings claim. While 24 per cent of the respondents said they wish to see Nitish return as CM, 33.5 per cent said they would favour Tejashwi on the post.

As per the survey, 25 per cent voted for Nitish as CM in July as compared to 24 per cent in September. On the other hand, Tejashwi's graph rose marginally, from 32.1 per cent in July to 33.5 per cent in September.

While 12.4 per cent of the respondents said they see Prashant Kishor as the next CM of Bihar, 13.7 per cent said so in September.

Assembly elections in Bihar are slated to be held in the October-November period this year. The dates are expected to be announced by the Election Commission of India in the coming days.