Bihar Assembly Election 2025: Exit polls right about NDA victory, miss the scale of sweep

the NDA’s commanding performance demonstrates how exit polls did capture the winner but could not anticipate the magnitude of the sweep.

The 2025 Bihar Assembly election trends have confirmed that while exit polls were broadly correct in predicting a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) victory, they dramatically underestimated the scale of the landslide.

Surveys by Dainik Bhaskar, People’s Pulse, Matrize‑IANS, Axis My India, News18 Mega Exit Poll, and Today’s Chanakya had projected the NDA to win between 121 and 178 seats.

Counting trends, however, show the alliance leading in 205 of 243 seats, well beyond even the most optimistic forecasts.

Notably, the NDA’s commanding performance demonstrates how exit polls did capture the winner but could not anticipate the magnitude of the sweep. The coalition’s advantage can be credited to a mix of targeted welfare schemes, strong campaign messaging, and the appeal of its leadership.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Rs 10,000 scheme for 1.3 crore women voters, along with an increase in old-age pensions from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100 for 1.2 crore senior citizens, proved highly popular. Additionally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign rhetoric invoking “katta, dunali, rangdari” and recalling the legacy of “Jungle Raj” further reinforced voter concerns about law and order under an RJD-led government.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan, led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Tejashwi Yadav, struggled to extend its appeal beyond the party’s core Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote base, which historically comprises around 30% of the electorate.

The alliance’s attempts to project governance credentials were overshadowed by the lingering “Jungle Raj” narrative, its inability to attract Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Dalits, and aspirational youth, internal infighting, and underperformance by Congress and VIP candidates. Friendly contests in multiple constituencies further weakened its prospects.

On the other hand, the NDA ran a cohesive, message-driven campaign focused on stability, governance, development, and welfare. JD(U) and BJP candidates leveraged Nitish Kumar’s track record on law-and-order improvements, infrastructure development, and direct transfers to women under the Jeevika scheme.

The current trends show the NDA surpassing its 2020 tally of 125 seats, with the BJP leading in 91 constituencies and the JD(U) in 83. The RJD is trailing in several of its traditional strongholds, highlighting the limitations of exit polls.

While they correctly predicted the winner, they failed to gauge the scale of the NDA’s decisive victory.