'Below normal' monsoon with 94% rainfall likely this year: Skymet

El Nino and several factors at play to hit monsoon this year.

Weather forecasting company Skymet anticipates 'below normal' monsoon in India with 94 percent of the long period average (LPA) rainfall of 868.6mm for four months from June to September 2023.

In its earlier foreshadow released on January 4, Skymet assessed the monsoon to be sub-par and now retains the same.

"Courtesy Triple-Dip-La Niña, southwest monsoon observed above normal/normal rainfall for the last four seasons. Now, La Niña has ended. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. Likelihood of El Niño is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon," Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, said.

Other than El Niño, there are other factors too influencing monsoon, Skymet said. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Niño, when sufficiently strong.

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IOD, also known as the Indian Niño, is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

IOD is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of monsoon.

El Niño and IOD are likely to be 'out of phase' and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. Second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated.

In geographical prospects, Skymet expects northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of being rain deficit.

Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during July and August. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh , the agri bowl of North India, are likely to observe less than normal rains during the second half of the season.

Skymet's foreshadows for June, July, August and September are as follows:

June - 99 percent of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3 mm)

• 70 percent chance of normal

• 10 percent chance of above normal

• 20 percent chance of below normal

July - 95 percent of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5 mm)

• 50 percent chance of normal

• 20 percent chance of above normal

• 30 percent chance of below normal

August - 92 percent of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9 mm)

• 20 percent chance of normal

• 20 percent chance of above normal

• 60 percent chance of below normal

September - 90 percent of LPA ( LPA for September = 167.9mm)

• 20 percent chance of normal

• 10 percent chance of above normal

• 70 percent chance of below normal