Has India’s third COVID-19 wave peaked?

The surge in daily new cases caused by the Omicron variant has been likened to a "flash flood" rather than wave. And while daily cases may not have yet peaked on a national level, parts of India are already seeing a decline in fresh cases.

Siddharth Upasani

January 19, 2022 / 18:15 IST

Representative image

The end of 2021 brought with it the start of a fresh deluge of daily new COVID-19 infections in India, driven by the Omicron variant. But developments have been such that Reserve Bank of India staff wrote in an article on January 17 that near-term economic prospects had brightened on hopes that the surge in cases caused by the Omicron variant may only be a "flash flood" and not a wave.

Numbers clearly seem to suggest so. As has been the case in other countries, there are indications that this phase may be shorter in duration compared to the deadly second wave India experienced in the first half of 2021. The seven-day moving average for daily new cases in India seems to be plateauing within a fortnight of daily new cases crossing the 1-lakh mark.

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While daily new cases in this third wave is perhaps yet to peak on a national level, certain regions are already seeing a decline. This could hold clues for the county as a whole.

"New cases in Mumbai seem to have achieved its peak (20,971 cases on January 7) but cases in other districts (Bengaluru, Pune etc.) are showing increase in daily new numbers. So, if other districts also implement strict measures and control the spread, then national peak may come within 2-3 weeks after Mumbai peak,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, State Bank of India's Group Chief Economic Adviser, in a note on January 18.

COVID-19 Vaccine

Frequently Asked Questions

How does a vaccine work?

A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine.

How many types of vaccines are there?

There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine.

What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind?

Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time.

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