Infosys' Q2 nos may not impact Nifty much: Anil Manghnani

Infosys' net profit rose by 3.5 percent, quarter-on-quarter, to Rs 2,369 crore in the second quarter of FY13.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Anil Manghnani, Modern Shares & Stock Brokers says over the last six-eight quarters, the market has moved beyond Infosys. "In the past, if Infosys numbers were great, the market would have a big move or vise versa, but that is not the case anymore. A lot of other stocks support the market, even if Infosys is not great. There are other stocks that go up and down. I don’t think there will be too much effect on the Nifty," he elaborates. For today, he says, 5,750 will be the resistance. "But, from an overall point of view, I still believe 5,800-5,900 is the key zone or key range for the market," he adds. Below is the edited transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy. Q: What is your Nifty strategy for the day? A: We had a good bounce. I think 5,750 will be the resistance, if you are just looking for the day. But, from an overall point of view, I still believe 5,800-5,900 is the key zone or key range for the market where even if it had to go then come back from there wouldn’t do too much damage to the chart. It would just tell me that okay the market had a fair run and it needs to pullback a little bit. So, just for the day 5,750 is the resistance. A lot will depend on Infosys. But over the last six-eight quarters, the market has moved beyond Infosys. In the past, if Infosys numbers were great, the market would have a big move or vise versa, but that is not the case anymore. A lot of other stocks support the market, even if Infosys is not great. There are other stocks that go up and down. I don’t think there will be too much effect on the Nifty. For the market, 5,750 today and 5,800-5,900, from an overall trend point of view, remain the major levels. Q: How is the CNX-IT looking technically? Is it looking stronger than the Nifty relatively or weaker? A: I would have to say weaker than the Nifty. You have to understand, over the last one month, the Nifty has done really well, beta has done well. So, given the fact that the rupee also appreciated quite significantly in the last month or so, there is no surprise that IT hasn’t performed. Many of the stocks were about a month back at the same levels. If you are comparing to the Nifty, clearly they have not performed. TCS, for example, after hitting a new life high around Rs 1,430, it is still sub Rs 1,300. Clearly, it is underperforming. Even Wipro went all the way to Rs 390, it is still at Rs 358. I think the only one that has probably managed to hold onto its overall gains has been HCL Tech. That was around Rs 590, it is still at about Rs 575. As a sector, I think more of the action has shifted to the midcaps. Satyam is doing well. Tech Mahindra has done well. But in the largecap, clearly the money has moved out in the last month or so. Q: Within the banking space, which are the stocks that you would bet on now from the heavyweights? A: I think you still have to assume that the unfinished target on the Bank Nifty is about 11,900. It has come off from about 11,600-11,700. But as long as it is holding 11,200, it will still have that potential to go back up. You would have to believe that the leader will still be ICICI Bank. It has an unfinished target of about Rs 1,125. But you could also see some of the PSUs play catch up. If you look at the move, yesterday, if I am not mistaken, OBC hit a downward support and then bounced sharply. With the Bank Nifty at a 52-week high, SBI is nowhere near Rs 2,475. That’s still a Rs 200 move away from the February highs. So, even if it had to play catch up to the rest of the market and reach its previous high, that’s an 8-10 percent move. So, I think it will be a mixed bag. But I would like to see the PSU banks actually catch up. _PAGEBREAK_ Q: How you would approach Unitech and DLF? A: From trend perspective, Rs 210 was a key support for DLF. So, I am not surprised that it held it even with all the news. The overall set-up hasn’t changed from being positive, even post the fact that the stock has fallen with all the news. I still believe Rs 245 to Rs 257 is the key resistance zone. So, it is a possibility that it goes back to Rs 235-240 again, retest it and then see what it does over there. Unitech is a difficult one. From a longer term chart, you still look at it, even if it goes up 10-15 percent it doesn’t change much. So, I am still not sure how to play Unitech. I would still believe there is one more down leg, but I guess with all momentum, you hold it. Rs 30-32 is possible in this move. Q: What are the levels that you would watch for on the downside, a close below which will give you more conviction to open a fresh short on the index? A: I think it is a little unfair to say the market has been volatile. We have had a one way move from 5,200-5,800. That’s great. Even if you see the pullback over the last three-four days, we have not seen any 100-point crack or 120-point crack. It has been gradual, 30-40-50 points maybe here and there and again pullback. Normally, after such a big move, correction is healthy. Even if you don’t get the bigger fall in the Nifty, you might see stocks correct without the Nifty doing much. Just to give you a couple of examples, BHEL went from Rs 272-241 yesterday, before bouncing back. Sun TV went from Rs 371-336. Zee, which has been a darling of the market over the last four months, also hit a major target at Rs 207 and it went back to Rs 184. Stocks keep doing their move. I think sometimes we watch only the index. So, we miss out that. Stocks do correct. But if you are talking about a good support on the downside, I still believe the first key support is about 5,585 on the Nifty.