Hold Bharat Petroleum Corporation; target of Rs 316 Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher recommended hold rating on Bharat Petroleum Corporation with a target price of Rs 316 in its research report dated October 28, 2024.

Broker Research

October 29, 2024 / 11:49 IST

hold

26 Aug, 2025 12:21

Volume

Todays L/H

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Bharat Petroleum Corporation

We upgrade the rating from ‘Sell’ to ‘Hold’ with a TP of Rs316 post correction in stock price. Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported lower-thanexpected Q2FY25 results with EBITDA of Rs45.5bn (down 19.5% QoQ, PLe: Rs61.7bn, BBGe: Rs62.2bn). PAT came in at Rs24bn (down 20.5% QoQ, PLe: Rs32.6bn, BBGe: Rs38.3bn). GRM stood at US$4.4/bbl. GMM as per our calculation came in at Rs5.8/ltr. Although average Singapore GRM is ~US$3/bbl in Q3-TD, we expect it to bounce back to the long-term average of US$5-7/bbl and build in a GRM of US$4.7/6/6/bbl for FY25/26/27E. On the marketing front, we estimate a GMM of Rs7.1/4.1/4.1/ltr for FY25/26/27E.

Outlook

The stock is currently trading at 1.5/1.4x of FY26/27 P/BV. We upgrade the multiple to 1.4x avg FY26-27 P/BV on rising GRM and moderate GMM. Upgrade to ‘Hold’.

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