In an interview to CNBC-TV18's Anuj Singhal and Surabhi Upadhyay, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com shared his views and outlook on the fundamentals of the market and specific stocks.
Below is the verbatim transcript of the interview.
Surabhi: Any thoughts on Jubilant Foodworks? It has disappointed for several quarters in a row.
A: I do not think that why any recovery or improvement in the financial performance will be seen. I have heard people have been talking about good offtake in this season, festive season or maybe the cricket season but let us not forget that they had the scheme kind of things also where a lot of discounts have all been offered. Maybe I am not a regular consumer of the pizza or maybe of the Dominos, so it will be difficult for me to comment. But there has been whatever the informations which have been gathered that there has been discount or maybe the kind of concessions offered to the extent of 30-40 percent.
So I am very afraid that how can that improve the bottomline of the company. And I have always in fact for the last maybe five years, I have been keeping my same stance of the expensive valuations, you have not seen probably this is the only company having shown a degrowth and in spite of having that commanding a price-earnings ratio (P/E) multiple of maybe 40-50 times. And I am honestly unable to understand and take this valuation call going forward. You may keep seeing this volatility happening, share moving to a Rs 1,150-1,200, again correcting to Rs 1,000. So this has become more a trading stock rather than a fundamental stock. So I will not be taking a valuation call or maybe fundamental call for advising a buy in this stock.
Anuj: A work on Aurobindo Pharma as well, after the rally and the news flow which continues to be positive.
A: Again positive view and in fact, if you recall, I have been repeatedly saying that maybe Aurobindo is my top pick amongst the pharma stocks having chosen by us that is Aurobindo, Glenmark Pharma and Divis Laboratories and we continue to have the same bias and yes the recent news flows and the kind of performance or the expectations going forward, probably you may see having positive surprises coming in from the stock. So maybe we are not advocating for buying in the pharmaceutical stocks. But if you want to have the balancing of the portfolio or if you are a compulsive buyer then probably one can look to go for Aurobindo Pharma even at the current levels.
Surabhi: So in the same breath, thoughts on Biocon? Is this really a game changing moment for the company? Stock already at a 52-week high.
A: Definitely it is a very positive move, but ultimately the monetisation and the effect of that has to be seen get reflected into the financial performance. I think based on the news flow, we have already seen the share having moved up substantially and I will not be taking again a fundamental call on Biocon at the current valuations.
Anuj: Thoughts on what is happening with GAIL India right now? Have you heard anything? Why should the stock be up 5 percent intraday?
A: Actually we have discussed on this. In fact if you see, I do not know honestly the specific reason for its upmove by about 4-5 percent today, but in fact, for the last 15 days, after having bottomed out at Rs 350 level, since then we have been and in fact at that point of time, we have also initiated a buy call and we have discussed in our afternoon show also.
And since then it has been seeing the value buy probably prior to that because of some research report having given a negative outlook, the stock has seen a correction by about Rs 70-100 to Rs 350 level. But honestly, if you ask me on the fundamental side, I think the present kind of valuations really deserves upto Rs 400. I do not see that there is any kind of risk to be seen from the financial performance or for the valuations. So yes, maybe at Rs 400, stock should take a pause after having seen a good one way run up for the last couple of weeks from Rs 350 levels.
Surabhi: From a fundamental point of view, do you have a call on DB Realty? Is it a stock worth holding?
A: I have been keeping the neutral stance on the Mumbai based real estate stocks, but if you take a call on DB Realty from a fundamental point of view, they have the complete presence only in the Mumbai city. But presently it is very unfortunate that all of their projects, virtually one can say that all of their projects are stalled, no work is really going on, maybe some finishing like DB Woods at Goregaon and all sort of things, but definitely the management is trying to work out the revival or maybe the recommencement of the projects and it is learned that at Jocob's circle near Arthur Road Jail, one project has been entered into a contract which they have already intimated to the stock exchanges with Radium Group or I do not know, maybe the son-in-law of Wadhwa Group.
And second project again that has, the story has been flashed on our channel that the DB Crown at Prabhadevi or maybe at Lower Parel, that is also being contemplated in joint development with Rustomjee and all sort of thihngs. So till we get to hear because all the builders in Mumbai city or maybe in Maharashtra has to comply with the RERA provisions by July 31, they have to upload the details of the undergoing projects and all that so we can expect some kind of revival or maybe development seen happening on these projects.
So till then though I am keeping a neutral or negative stance on the share but maybe if he is already holding the stock at Rs 48-49 having bought, my advice is remain invested and look for the developments which are going to take place in the next three months more specifically in respect to these two or three projects because all these projects are seen quite massive, anywhere between 5 lakh to 15 lakh of square feet with a project value running between Rs 3,000 crore to Rs 7,000 crore.
So maybe keep the investment view for the next three months and then again review the investment at that point of time.
Anuj: A work on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and the big rally that we have seen on that stock? Of course two part question. A] should that continue and B] should the others catch up now in terms of oil marketing companies?
A: There are two things. Firstly, if you take the valuation call and the news which has been floating in the market that government is looking to ask for 50 percent premium for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), probably that is keeping the valuation increase seen in the HPCL, number one. Number two, if you take a call on the P/E multiple, HPCL ruling at the least valuation. I am talking on the historic earning or maybe for FY17, it is ruling at a P/E multiple of maybe 9.3 even after seeing such a big run up or maybe 9.4 while Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is ruling at 10.5 and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is ruling at 10.5-11 times.
Number three, if you really take the situation going forward, HPCL has always been seen the cheapest amongst all. Maybe once you have the MRPL getting merged with the company in which HPCL is holding 17 percent that will again be seen the value accretion or booster for the company.
Lastly, HPCL probably was seen the most under owned because if you recall about a month back, when this news was floating that HPCL will be taken over by ONGC, the market has taken a negative view. But we have been maintaining at that point of time that I do not see any reason why that should be seen as a negative and at that point of time, the stock has gone under owned and maybe oversold. So all these combinations of factors are keeping HPCL moving up, but going from here on, I will not be taking a valuation call or buying call on any of the oil marketing companies for the simple reason that the 13-13.5 percent stake which is held by ONGC and IOC is being talked of that they are probably going to divest and that will put the pressure on IOC.
As I said that BPCL is already seen expensive. There is no news flow involved in this. Number three, HPCL has already seen the run up having played in anticipation of taking it over by ONGC and I am not subscribing to 50 percent premium theory which is going to be asked by the government from ONGC. So taking all this into consideration, probably I will keep a pause on all oil marketing companies in spite of we having a positive view on all three having oil marketing companies from a longer term point of view.
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