Emkay Global Financial's research report on Tata Motors
TTMT stock price has corrected 16% from its peak, amid outlook downgrade at peer BMW (incl. due to muted China demand; link), and slowness in domestic CVs/PVs (incl. rising discounts/price cuts; link). We highlight that: i) for JLR, China is a relatively smaller market (~24% vs ~32% for BMW), while profitability and debt outlook are largely intact; ii) India CV outlook is improving, with margins likely to see strong increase led by healthy fleet operator profitability, sustained pricing discipline; iii) new launches, lower inventory would help outperformance vs a weak PV industry. TTMT’s B/S is healthier now, with valuations least demanding among OEMs. We trim FY26E/27E EPS by ~2.5% (5%/11% revenue/PBT CAGR).
Outlook
We upgrade TTMT to BUY from Add, keeping our SoTP-based TP unchanged at Rs1,175/sh (incl. roll-over to Sep-26E).
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