We recently met the management of PC Jeweller (PCJL). Our key takeaways: PCJL remains confident of 25-30% CAGR in the domestic jewelry retail business over the next five years. The franchisee model is working well so far; going forward, franchisee stores will be ~80% of incremental annual store openings. PCJL has massive opportunity to grow at the cost of unorganized players. Though competition from organized players will increase as the salience of the organized segment goes up 3-4 years down the line, the company believes its strengths on design (craft) and low cost manufacturing will serve it well in the long term.
Outlook We have a BUY rating on the stock, with a target price of INR645, valuing the company at 29x December 2018E EPS, 40% discount to Titan. We believe that the valuation gap vis-à-vis Titan will shrink further, once PCJL demonstrates its ability to maintain its revenue and earnings trajectory.
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