Dolat Capital Market's research report on IRCTC
IRCTC offers highly scalable and unmatched opportunity to exclusively participate in the growth story of Indian Railway (IR) traffic growth, Train tourism and Hospitality (Catering+Packaged Drinking Water, Accomodation). Robust adoption of online ticketing during pandemic, conversion of unreserved coaches into 2S category boosting TAM for Ticketing, multi-fold scale-up in PDW capacity, entry into passenger rail-operations (3 trains, more to follow) and ~60% jump in catering pricing are likely to act as a ‘profit windfall’ in coming quarters and should boost the financial growth, return ratios, and operating metrics for IRCTC. The multiple levers for growth specifically conversion of unreserved coaches into 2S would be more than suffice to cover up for growth lost due to COVID pandemic.
Factoring in the opportunities across business segments and the huge scale/multitude opportunities that IR offers along-with gradual expansion in non-IR revenue stream (E-catering, air/bus ticketing, hotel booking); we expect a revenue/earnings CAGR of 16%/23% over FY20-25E, and initiate coverage with a TP of Rs2,650 valued at 40x PER on FY23E of Rs. 66).
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