Emkay Global Financial's research report on Gravita India
GRAV reported a stable quarterly performance, with Q3FY25 EBITDA of Rs1bn (+0.8% QoQ; +14.0% YoY). The company reported Lead EBITDA/kg of Rs19.03 for Q3 which is at the higher end of the guidance range of Rs18-19. The next leg of expansion is at the Mundra facility, which is expected to commission in 1HFY26. This would result in profitability boost sometime in mid-FY26, resulting in the company broadly achieving its volume growth target of 25%. The management reiterated EBITDA/kg guidance of Rs18-19 for Lead, Rs14 for Aluminium, and Rs10 for Plastic. The company plans bringing gross debt down to nil, and would be open to lever-up for the right M&A opportunities.
Outlook
We make modest changes to our assumptions which results in 3-5% decline to our EBITDA estimates for FY25-27. We revise down our TP to Rs2,600 (down 3.7%).
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