Motilal Oswal's research report on Dalmia Bharat
DALBHARA has been consistent in its capacity expansion over the past decade, with a 14% CAGR in grinding capacity since FY11. In the long run, the company expects a 14-17% CAGR in capacity and aims to increase its cement grinding capacity to 110-130mtpa by 2031. In our recently concluded Annual Global Investor Conference, Managing Director Mr. Puneet Dalmia shared his views on the industry’s long-term potential and changing dynamics. He expects the consolidation to accelerate and believes that the top-4 players’ volume share is expected to rise to 69% by FY30E vs. 44%/58% in FY13/FY23. The top-4 players will garner 85% of industry’s demand share over FY23-30. He expects a 6.5% CAGR in industry capacity over FY24-30, lower than the ~8% CAGR in demand.
Outlook
We value DALBHARA at 13x FY25E EV/EBITDA to arrive at a TP of INR2,400, an upside of 18% from current levels. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
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