Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Kajaria Ceramics
We downward revise our FY25/26 estimates by 10.5%/9.3% due to soft volume growth expectations and the anticipation of continued lower margins. Kajaria Ceramics (KJC) guided tiles volume growth of 11-13% and EBITDA margin of 15-17% over FY25-27. We have considered ~10.0% CAGR in tiles volume over FY24-26 with cons. EBITDA margin of 16.0% in FY26. Management indicated gradual pick-up in FY25 volumes and expected growth to enable through 1) capacity additions, 2) increase in dealer penetration & showrooms, 3) brand building, 4) expansion in product portfolio, 5) intensify focus on govt. projects, and 6) improve business efficiency. We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 12.6%/15.3%/17.1% over FY24- 26E.
Outlook
Maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating, as we value the stock at 35x FY26 EPS to arrive at revised TP of Rs1,318 (earlier Rs 1,445).
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