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Last Updated : Jan 10, 2013 10:35 PM IST | Source: CNBC-TV18

Negative on sugar stocks, positive on Sintex: Tulsian

SP Tulsian, sptulsian.com, says that Sintex has posted numbers in line with the expectation and he has a positive view on the stock. However, he is negative on all UP-based sugar stocks.


SP Tulsian, sptulsian.com, says that Sintex has posted numbers in line with the expectation and he has a positive view on the stock. However, he is negative on all UP-based sugar stocks.


Below is the edited transcript of his interview to CNBC-TV18.


Q: What is your view on Sintex?


A: The company has posted impressive numbers and the numbers are in line with the expectations. For FY13, the EPS is likely to be at Rs 9. The company has also made provision for the payment of FCCB liability of Rs 1200-1300 crore which will fall due in March 2013. All the negative factors are behind the company. I have a positive call on Sintex.


Q: Cement stocks are the biggest losers on the Nifty today. If we see a fuel price hike then will cement manufacturers will be able to pass the increase cost to the consumers and hence it may not affect their profitability too much? What kind of damage do you see for some of these companies?


A: Robust demand is giving pricing power to cement companies and it seems to remain with them. As fuel price hike has not yet happened it would be improper to assume that free sale or bulk user will have to pay the market determined price -- an increase of about Rs 9-10 per litre.


But even if we factor this, the entire amount will be imposed on the bulk user whether it is cement, mines or power user and this is seen quite negative. I think cement companies will not be able to pass the complete rise in one shot and this concern is keeping the cement stocks under check.


But, I think this phenomenon of the pessimism is likely to remain till tomorrow because we have seen huge trading positions having built in the stocks like UltraTech, ACC, Ambuja or even India Cement and the weak hands are now exiting. Once trading positions gets liquidated with some shorts then the stock comes into focus. By tomorrow, all these stocks should bottom out of the cement sector.


Q: What is your view on ONGC? Some brokerages are bullish on this stock and have a buy call at around Rs 350?


A: Any price increase will not have much positive impact on oil marketing companies. Price hike in diesel and LPG will ease their liquidity but it will be very positive for the upstream companies because the subsidy sharing which now tentatively has been fixed at about 38 percent of the total under recovery may get reduced and that is quite positive.


One cannot rely on the up move of the up streams companies like ONGC, Oil India and GAIL. I think the target of Rs 350 is not convincing. Cairn will ramp up its production and ONGC holds 30 percent interest in it. This is one positive factor for ONGC however, I think profit booking will come in at Rs 305-310 and this is the resistance for the stock. 


Q: Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) and Indiabulls Power are down today. There is some news that Indiabulls projects at Nashik and Amravati is stalled due to suspension of payments by financiers. How do you think it would impact both these companies and particularly BHEL?


A: I was never convinced with Indiabulls Power project in Amravati because earlier they faced environmental problem followed by local agitations. I don't think the group has the capacity to execute the project. I have a negative view on this project.


On BHEL, as payments from the financiers for power project is freezed, dispatches will get stuck at BHEL level. Positively, BHEL has a strong order pipeline of Rs 150 lakh crore so the product could be diverted to the other buyers of the power projects. So, this maybe a temporary negative for BHEL and things should get resolved at their end. If BHEL touches Rs 210-215, then it qualifies as a good buy however, I don't see BHEL to touch this level.


Q: How did you react to Kingfisher Airlines (KFA) and the revival plan that Mr. Mallya submitted to his employees? These promises have been made several times in the past but the stock has seen a 10 percent move today. How do you approach it?


A: There is still value in Kingfisher infrastructure or company. There has been delay and many times commitments have not been met. It is also know that banks are also in the process of moving to court for recovery of their money. Eithad statement says that they are in talks with both Jet Airways as well as KFA. I maintain that valuation of KFA is quite reasonable compared to Jet. This will garner some positive development. But it is very difficult to crystallize the timeline.


Q: Balrampur Chini is down about 6 percent and would you buy that stock on a dip?


A: All UP-based sugar mills are not doing well. The prices of sugarcane also has come down, the farmers have been selling because mills are not lifting as they find it uneconomical.


The realisation has also corrected to about Rs 32-32.50. In fact the government has to revise the levy sugar prices because of the increase in the FRP, the sugarcane price which Center is fixing has no relevance but that has its impact on the fixation of the levy sugar prices and it is also getting delayed because an increase in levy is expected by couple of rupees. Any increase or rise in these share prices should be used as an exit opportunity.


 

First Published on Jan 10, 2013 03:09 pm
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