Accumulate GSPL; target of Rs 88: PLilladher

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Prabhudas Lilladher is bullish on Gujarat State Petronet and has recommended accumulate rating on the stock with a target of Rs 88 in its February 08, 2013 research report.
 
“Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) reported in line operational performance for Q3FY13, with sales at Rs2.56bn against our expectation of Rs2.49bn, flat on a QoQ basis. Transmission volumes declined during the quarter to 27.2mmscmd (32.77mmscmd in Q3) against an estimate of 28.5mmscmd, on account of declining KG D6 volumes. EBITDA, during Q3FY13 at Rs2.34bn declined 7% YoY, owing to 27% increase in operating expenses, in line with our estimate of Rs2.34bn. PAT, at Rs1.19bn, was slightly higher than our expectation of Rs1.15bn.”
 
“Despite a 6% QoQ fall in volumes, revenues from transportation were flat QoQ, owing to a 4% QoQ increase in blended realizations to Rs1,019 per tscm. GSPL has been able to arrest a fall in revenues despite the steep decline in volumes, on account of take or pay contracts in place for certain volumes. KG D6 volumes continue to decline, posing headwinds for near term volume performance of the company.”
 
“On account of declining domestic gas output, GSPL volume has declined over the last ~11-12 quarters. With expectations of a bottoming out of KG output near current levels, we foresee transmission volumes for GSPL being close to bottoming out. Medium term growth for volumes could emerge from Hazira expansion/ Dahej expansion/ new Mundra LNG terminal. GSPC has already booked around 2.25MMTPA (~8.8mmsmcd) from upcoming incremental Dahej capacity, slated to come on stream in the next three years. Moreover, Mundra terminal is slated to come up (EPC order has been placed in Dec’12), Valuations at ~8.7x FY14E EPS and 0.9x FY14 EV/GCI are attractive. We maintain ‘Accumulate’,” says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.

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