Emkay Global Financial Services is bullish on Larsen and Toubro (L&T) and has recommended accumulate rating on the stock with a target of Rs 1603 in its July 23, 2012 research report.
“L&T posts strong 21% yoy growth in net profit in Q1FY13 driven by healthy order backlog execution and higher other income. Led by strong order backlog, L&T witnessed sustained revenue growth momentum – up 26% yoy to Rs119.6 bn. Revenue growth was led by E&C segment (up 30% yoy to Rs105 bn). EBITDA margins fell by 160 bps yoy to 10.5% (below estimates) – attributed to rise in input costs. High other income (+124% yoy to Rs6.1 bn) offset drop in EBITDA margins and forex loss of Rs1.7 bn (corporate MTM forex loss). Hence, APAT growth was ahead estimates at 21% yoy to Rs9.0 bn.”
“L&T secures orders worth Rs119.5 bn (+21% yoy) – equivalent to 24% of FY13E target order inflows. Order inflows were led by spillover of order finalization from Q4FY12 – contributing Rs78 bn or 40% of total orders. Sector-wise break-up of the orders was Infrastructure (65%), Power (21%) Hydrocarbon (2%), Process (5%) and Others (7%). Correspondingly, the order book also grew 12% yoy to Rs1531 bn – equivalent to 2.75X TTM revenues. L&T witnessed yet another quarter of operating cash outflow – led by continued deterioration of working capital. Net working capital increased from 11.9% in Mar’12 to 15.3% in Jun’12 – was the only negative element in Q1FY13 performance. Consequently, net operating cash outflow for Q1FY13 stood at Rs16 bn. Led by strong performance in Q1FY13, L&T maintained its guidance for FY13E. It reiterated 15-20% growth in order inflows and revenues with EBITDA margins at +/- 50 bps. We have fine-tuned our estimates to factor on-schedule project execution and revise upwards our earnings estimates by 2% to Rs83.1 and by 1% to Rs93.0 per share for FY13E and FY14E respectively.”
“L&T remains our top pick in the ECG sector being a proxy investment play and multiple growth levers. L&T has strong order book cover (2.75X TTM revenues) with earnings growth estimates in top quartile of comparative peer growth. However, we believe that upsides to earnings and valuations are capped – only caveat being positive government policy announcements. We have an Accumulate rating with a target price of Rs1603/Share,” says Emkay Global Financial Services research report.
Institutional holding more than 40% in Indian cos
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