'Must tread carefully,' says GTRI as India-US trade deal negotiations gain momentum

The US has extended the deadline for countries to finalise bilateral trade deals with the US from July 9 to August 1, giving a final three-week window before sweeping country-specific tariffs come into force,

India could be among the countries expected to finalise a trade deal with the US soon, as President Donald Trump steps up pressure by issuing formal tariff letters to several nations, but New Delhi must tread carefully, economic think tank GTRI said on Tuesday.

"Trump's model isn't a free trade agreement, it's a YATRA - Yielding to American Tariff Retaliation Agreement," the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.

The US has extended the deadline for countries to finalise bilateral trade deals with the US from July 9 to August 1, giving a final three-week window before sweeping country-specific tariffs come into force, it added.

The extension is part of a broader trade offensive launched on April 2, when Trump identified about 60 countries for special tariffs unless they signed new deals aligning with American trade interests.

So far, only the United Kingdom and Vietnam have complied. A temporary ceasefire deal with China is also in place.

"Now, Trump is escalating the pressure. On July 7, he signed formal letters to 14 countries, outlining the tariffs they will face from August 1 if they fail to conclude a deal," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

On Monday Trump-administration announced 25 per cent tariffs on Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Tunisia; 30 per cent on South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina; 32 per cent on Indonesia; 35 per cent on Bangladesh, Serbia; 36 per cent Cambodia, Thailand; and 40 per cent tariffs on Laos, Myanmar.

Srivastava said that these warnings, described by the White House as 'final notices', leave countries with a stark choice to sign a deal on US terms or face punitive duties.

He added that the tariff hike is expected to disrupt trade flows, increase consumer prices in the US, and cause broader supply chain complications globally.

US imports from China were down by 35 per cent in May 2025 over the previous period.

"With the clock ticking, India is seen as a top candidate for a deal announcement in the coming days...But New Delhi must tread carefully," he said.

With the US showing willingness to override agreements and impose unilateral conditions, for example, on BRICS members, India must weigh the strategic value of engagement against the risks of an imbalanced deal, he cautioned.