US stocks rise as Fed bets intact after jobs markdown

Oil jumped after a reported Israeli attack in Qatar revived fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East and increased the risk premium for crude

Stocks rose after a bigger-than-anticipated revision to US jobs data reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

The S&P 500 headed toward all-time highs. Apple Inc. will hold its biggest product launch event of the year, and is set to unveil the iPhone 17. Treasuries saw small moves after a four-day rally. Oil jumped after a reported Israeli attack in Qatar revived fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East and increased the risk premium for crude. Gold rose to a record.

The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 911,000 for the 12 months through March — or nearly 76,000 less each month — according to the government’s preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday. The final figures are due early next year.

Next up will be readings on both producer and consumer prices, due Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. While traders have fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut by Fed policymakers this month, sticky inflation could dim the outlook for cuts in October and December.

US job growth cooled notably last month while the unemployment rate rose to the highest since 2021, fanning concerns the labor market may be on the cusp of a more significant deterioration. Data last week showed nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 in August, and revisions showed employment shrank in June for the first time since 2020. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%.

“Given the recent softness in the labor market data, even if we were to see elevated inflation data this week, we still think the Fed would cut rates next week,” said Chris Kampitsis at Barnum Financial Group. “While a rate cut is almost a certainty next week, the magnitude of the cut is still up for debate.”