Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 bounce back to 24,000 in the start of December series, Bank Nifty sustain above moving averages?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 failed to sustain near the 24,350 level, which had acted as a key hurdle for the last four days, and dropped significantly on November 28 (the monthly F&O expiry session), breaking down the consolidation range. The index fell below short-term moving averages and entered the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with a long bearish candle formation, signaling weakness. After the sharp fall, if the index manages to rebound, it may face resistance around the 24,000–24,200 zone. On the downside, the 23,600 level (200-day EMA) is a potential support, experts said. The Bank Nifty needs to climb above 52,000 for an upward rally towards 52,500. However, staying below this level may drive it down toward the 51,600–51,500 zone.

On Thursday, November 28, the Nifty 50 plunged 361 points or 1.5 percent to 23,914, while the Bank Nifty fell 395 points to 51,907, despite market breadth favouring bulls. A total of 1,331 shares gained, compared to 1,143 shares that fell on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Ameya Ranadive, CMT CFTe, Senior Technical Analyst at StoxBox

The Nifty is currently trading near 23,900, just below a critical resistance zone of 24,200–24,400, which has acted as a strong barrier over the past week. A decisive breakout above this zone could trigger a shift in sentiment, paving the way for higher levels. On the daily chart, the index has consistently failed to sustain above the 100-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 24,310, indicating weak momentum. A close above this level is essential for initiating the next leg of the rally. The current setup indicates that Nifty needs to hold above 24,250 to move higher towards 24,500 and 24,650. On the downside, immediate supports are placed at 24,150 and 24,000.

Key Resistance: 24,360

Key Support: 23,750

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips towards 23,750 for targets of 24,180 and 24,360, with a stop-loss at 23,600.

Mandar Bhojane, Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking

The price action resulted in a bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting profit booking in Nifty 50 after a pullback from support levels. The immediate support is seen at 23,800 and 23,680, which are strong Fibonacci levels and could act as potential reversal points. These levels present an opportunity for buying if the price action confirms a rebound. On the upside, 24,350 is expected to act as immediate resistance. A sustained move above this level could propel the Nifty further toward 24,800 and 25,000, offering significant upside potential.

Key Resistance: 24,400, 24,800

Key Support: 23,700, 23,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near the 23,750 level, with a stop-loss of 23,250, targeting 24,800 and 25,000 levels.

Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

While the bulls showed strength early in the week, Thursday's session saw the bears take control, leading to significant selling pressure. Every small bounce was met with resistance, indicating that the sell-on-bounce trend remains intact. On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle and wiped out the gains of the last four trading sessions. As long as it holds below the 24,200 zone, weakness could be seen toward the 23,700 and 23,500 levels, with hurdles at 24,200 and 24,350 zones.

Key Resistance: 24,200, 24,350

Key Support: 23,500, 23,700

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a bounce with a stop-loss of 24,200 for a downside target toward the 23,700–23,500 levels.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Ameya Ranadive,CMT CFTe, Senior Technical Analyst at StoxBox

The Bank Nifty is trading near 51,900, consolidating within a range of 50,000 to 52,500 over the past month. The resistance zone at 52,400–52,800 is critical, as it marks two months of resistance. A breakout above this level could signal strength. On the positive side, the Bank Nifty has managed to sustain above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, reflecting a bullish undertone. For an upward move, the Bank Nifty needs to sustain above 52,500, which could propel it towards 52,800 and 53,000. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 51,200.

Key Resistance: 53,600, 53,750

Key Support: 51,000

Strategy: Short the 51,400 strike Put (of December 24 expiry) at a premium of Rs 505, targeting Rs 250–150. The view will negate if the premium rises to Rs 700.

Mandar Bhojane, Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Bank Nifty formed a strong bearish candle, indicating significant selling pressure. The index witnessed a sharp decline of 977 points from the day’s high of 52,760. If the Bank Nifty sustains below the critical level of 52,000, it may experience further downside, with 51,200 and 51,000 acting as immediate support levels.

A reversal from these support zones could present a potential buying opportunity if accompanied by confirming price action. On the higher side, 52,400 and 52,600 will serve as immediate resistance levels. A close above these levels could trigger an upside rally, pushing the index toward 53,200 and 53,600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently trading near 53 and trending downward, signaling strengthening bearish momentum. Despite this, the Bank Nifty continues to trade above its key moving averages, indicating that the broader structure remains supportive for buyers as long as crucial levels hold.

Key Resistance: 52,800, 53,000

Key Support: 51,200, 51,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near the 51,200 level, with a stop-loss of 50,800, targeting 52,800 and 53,000 levels.

Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

As long as the Bank Nifty holds below the 52,000 zone, weakness could be seen toward the 51,500 and 51,000 levels, while on the upside, resistance is seen at the 52,250 and 52,500 zones.

Key Resistance: 52,250, 52,500

Key Support: 51,000, 51,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a bounce with a stop-loss of 52,000, targeting downside levels toward 51,500/51,000 zones.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.