Trade setup for June 16: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

Nifty Trade Setup

The Nifty 50 extended its southward journey for another session and corrected 0.7 percent on June 13, tracking global weakness amid the Israel-Iran conflict. The index dropped below short-term moving averages, signaling weakness and caution in the near term. It is expected to remain in the 24,450–25,000 range in the upcoming sessions. In the last session, it defended the 24,450 level, which is the immediate key support. A decisive fall below this could drive the index down to 24,370—the upper end of the gap-up opening on May 12. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at the 24,850–24,900 levels, followed by 25,000, according to experts.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (24,719)

Resistance based on pivot points: 24,756, 24,822, and 24,930

Support based on pivot points: 24,541, 24,475, and 24,367

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle on the daily charts due to an intraday recovery, but the near-term trend remains negative given the continuation of the lower high–lower low formation. Furthermore, the index traded below short-term moving averages (10- and 20-day EMAs) as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD sustained its negative crossover with a weakening histogram, while both the RSI and Stochastic RSI maintained their negative crossovers.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (55,527)

Resistance based on pivot points: 55,661, 55,788, and 55,994

Support based on pivot points: 55,249, 55,122, and 54,916

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 56,115, 56,835

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,275, 54,855

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also witnessed a gap-down opening and closed 1 percent lower, continuing its downtrend and forming lower highs and lower lows for the fourth consecutive session. Despite this, it formed a bullish candle on the daily timeframe. The banking benchmark index also traded below short-term moving averages and the midline of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD, RSI, and Stochastic RSI all maintained negative crossovers, signaling continued weakness in the index.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 82.32 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,500 strike (66.97 lakh contracts), and the 25,200 strike (62.01 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,000 strike, which saw an addition of 39.34 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,700 and 24,800 strikes, which added 25.5 lakh and 19.1 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 25,100 strike, which shed 80,775 contracts.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 24,000 strike (with 69.42 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 24,500 strike (47.7 lakh contracts) and the 24,700 strike (36.73 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,800 strike, which saw an addition of 24.17 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,500 and 24,600 strikes, which added 21.32 lakh and 20.42 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 24,900 strike, which shed 11.96 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,000 and 25,100 strikes which shed 5.9 lakh and 4.49 lakh contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 56,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 20.93 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 57,000 strike (15.45 lakh contracts) and the 56,500 strike (9.6 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was visible at the 55,500 strike (with the addition of 3.4 lakh contracts), followed by the 57,500 strike (1.89 lakh contracts), and the 55,600 strike (1.55 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 57,000 strike, which shed 66,675 contracts, followed by the 54,000 and 56,300 strikes, which shed 48,810 and 36,930 contracts, respectively.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike (with 17.94 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 55,000 strike (12.04 lakh contracts) and the 54,000 strike (8.05 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was observed at the 54,500 strike (which added 1.96 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,300 strike (29,340 contracts) and the 54,200 strike (25,710 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 56,000 strike, which shed 2.21 lakh contracts, followed by the 56,500 and 57,000 strikes, which shed 1.94 lakh and 1.17 lakh contracts, respectively.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, declined to 0.89 on June 13, compared to 0.92 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

9) India VIX

The India VIX, known as the fear gauge, extended its uptrend for another session and rose above the 15 mark, reaching 15.08 (up 7.6 percent), causing some discomfort for the bulls.

10) Long Build-up (22 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 22 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

11) Long Unwinding (78 Stocks)

78 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (99 Stocks)

99 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

13) Short-Covering (24 Stocks)

24 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&O ban: HUDCO, Manappuram Finance

Stocks retained in F&O ban: Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Birlasoft, Central Depository Services, Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, Indian Energy Exchange, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), RBL Bank, Titagarh Rail Systems

Stocks removed from F&O ban: Hindustan Copper