Technical View: Uptrend may be sustainable only if Nifty decisively surpasses 25,250

Nifty Outlook for July 24

The Nifty 50 bounced back sharply and closed at a two-week high on July 23, climbing 0.6% higher. It continued its pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily charts for another session. Additionally, there was a breakout of a downward-sloping resistance trendline, and the index has moved back above the 20-day EMA (25,187), which is positive.

Going forward, the index needs to reclaim and sustain above the 25,250 zone to continue its upward journey toward the 25,350–25,400 range, which would fill the gap created during the correction on July 11. However, the 25,000 level is expected to act as a key support zone, according to market experts.

On July 23, the Nifty 50 opened higher at 25,139 and remained in positive territory throughout the session. It touched an intraday high of 25,234 in late trade before closing 159 points higher at 25,220, marking its highest closing level since July 10.

The index formed a bullish candle with a minor lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating a gradual strengthening of the pullback rally in the market.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the underlying short-term trend of the Nifty has turned positive amid range-bound action.

“A decisive move above 25,250 levels could open the next upside target of 25,550 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 25,100,” he said.

Weekly options data suggests that 25,200 will be a crucial zone for determining the direction of the market—either toward 25,500 or back to 25,000—in the upcoming sessions.

On the Call side, the maximum open interest was seen at the 25,200 strike, followed by 25,500 and 26,000 strikes. Maximum writing was observed at the 25,600 strike, followed by 25,250 and 25,350.

On the Put side, the 25,200 strike holds the highest open interest, followed by 25,100 and 25,000 strikes. Maximum writing was at 25,200, followed by 25,150 and 25,100.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also regained momentum after a day of profit booking, outperforming the Nifty 50 with a 455-point (0.8%) gain, closing at 57,210. It formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow on the daily timeframe and traded above short-term moving averages, which is considered a positive signal.

The daily RSI has given a bullish crossover, indicating that downside may be limited for now.

Looking ahead, Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities said, “The zone of 57,400–57,500 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index, as a horizontal trendline is placed in that region. A sustainable move above 57,500 could lead to a sharp upside rally toward 58,100, followed by 58,600 in the short term.”

On the downside, he believes that the 20-day EMA zone of 56,850–56,800 will serve as immediate support for the index.

Volatility Update

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, hit a fresh 15-month low, which provides more stability to the market. However, the low volatility also serves as a caution for potential sharp moves on either side. The India VIX declined by 2.21% to 10.52, marking its lowest closing level since April 24, 2024.