Technical View: Sustaining above 24,700 can drive Nifty towards 25,000, VIX at over one-month low

Nifty Uptrend

The Nifty 50 rebounded nicely after a couple of days of correction and closed the monthly F&O contracts expiry session with a 0.3 percent gain on May 29, while defending the 24,700 level amid a sharp fall in the volatility index. The index has been hovering around the 10-day EMA for over a week and has also remained within the 24,450–25,100 zone for more than couple of weeks.

As long as the Nifty 50 manages to hold 24,700 in the upcoming sessions of the June series, a march toward the 25,000–25,100 zone remains possible. However, if it falls and sustains below 24,700, the levels to watch would be 24,500–24,450, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 24,825, hit an intraday high of 24,893, and a low of 24,677. It ended the session at 24,834, up 81 points, forming a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily charts—indicating indecision among bulls and bears.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, believes that 24,700 and 24,650 will act as key support zones for traders.

“If the market sustains above these levels, the chances of hitting 25,000–25,100 become brighter. However, a break below 24,650 could change the sentiment. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions,” he said.

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 may continue to trade in the range of 24,500–25,000 in the short term. The 25,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 24,800 and 25,500 strikes. The maximum Call writing was seen at the 24,800 strike, followed by 25,000 and 25,500 strikes.

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was observed at the 24,000 strike, followed by 24,800 and 24,500 strikes, with the highest Put writing at the 24,800 strike, followed by 24,400 and 24,500 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, closing 129 points higher at 55,546, while continuing to sustain above all key moving averages—including the 10, 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs.

“On the upside, the banking benchmark index continues to face resistance near the 56,000–56,100 zone,” said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP – Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates.

On the downside, he noted that the 21-day EMA support is placed near 54,900.

“As long as the index remains above this level, a relief rally toward 56,000 cannot be ruled out,” he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, turned favourable for bulls as it fell sharply by 8.87 percent to 16.42, dropping below all key moving averages.