Technical View: Nifty 50’s path to 25,800 hinges on crossing Monday’s high; Bank Nifty stays firm above all moving averages

Nifty outlook for November 11

The Nifty 50 snapped a three-day losing streak and negated the lower high–lower low structure of the previous six consecutive sessions, closing one-third of a percent higher on November 10 and marking a positive start to the week. The index tested short-term moving averages (10- and 20-day EMAs) but could not sustain above both on a closing basis due to pressure at higher levels.

Hence, closing and sustaining above Monday's high (25,650) is crucial for a further upward move toward 25,700–25,800, followed by 26,000, as this would not only clear the short-term moving averages but also the midline of the Bollinger Bands. However, 25,300 is expected to remain a key support zone, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 25,503, which was also the day’s low, and sustained its upward momentum throughout the session. It rallied 150 points intraday but faced some selling pressure in the second half and finished the session at 25,574, up 82 points.

The index formed a bullish candle with an upper shadow on the daily timeframe and a higher high–higher low formation, indicating a bounce in the market despite some pressure at higher levels. The RSI climbed above 50 to the 52 zone, though still below the reference line, while the MACD maintained a bearish crossover with further weakness in the histogram.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the overall trend of the Nifty remains positive, and any weakness down to 25,400–25,300 could be viewed as a buy-on-dips opportunity.

A decisive move above 25,700 could see the Nifty advance toward 26,000 levels in the near term, he said.

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,400–26,000 range in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest (OI) was seen at the 25,700 strike, followed by 26,000 and 25,800 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at 25,650, 25,700, and 26,100 strikes. On the other hand, the 25,500 strike held the maximum Put open interest, followed by 25,000 and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at 25,500, 25,550, and 25,600 strikes.

The Bank Nifty sustained above all key moving averages as well as the midline of the Bollinger Band, climbing up to 58,100 intraday before closing 61 points higher at 57,938. The banking index formed a bullish candle with an upper shadow on the daily timeframe, signaling positive bias with some pressure at higher zones.

The RSI climbed above the 60 zone, though it remained below the reference line, while the Stochastic RSI showed a positive crossover in the oversold zone. The MACD continued to display a negative crossover with a further decline in the histogram.

"Going ahead, the zone of 58,100–58,200 will act as an important hurdle for the index, while on the downside, 57,600–57,500 will act as an important support," said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

Overall, a breakout on either side of this defined range is likely to lead to a directional move in Bank Nifty, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, fell 2.05 percent to 12.3, signaling some comfort for bulls. It needs to fall below short- and medium-term moving averages to provide a strong comfort zone for the bulls.