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Last Updated : Nov 08, 2019 06:26 PM IST | Source:

Taking Stock: Moody’s outlook change pushes Sensex lower by 300 points; Nifty holds 11,900

For the week, the Nifty50 rose 0.15 percent while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.4 percent.

Indian market witnessed profit booking at higher levels triggered by Moody’s Investors Services outlook change on India. The global rating agency slashed India’s rating outlook to “negative” from “stable”, citing increasing risks to growth.

The heat was felt across D-Street as well as Mint Street. The Indian rupee hit a fresh 3-week low, and bond prices fell on Friday tracking Moody's statement.


Nomura Research also lowered its GDP growth projections to 4.9% from 5.7% in 2019 and to 6.0% from 6.9% for 2020.

In reply to Moody’s outlook change, the finance ministry, in a statement said that the fundamentals of the Indian economy remain robust with inflation under check and bond yields low.

Moody's cuts outlook on 6 Indian financial companies: Moody's cuts outlook on 6 Indian financial companies to negative from stable: Moody's revised outlook of EXIM India, HDFC Bank, HUDCO and State Bank of India to negative.

Outlook on Bank of India, Canara Bank, Syndicate Bank, and Union Bank maintained at stable.

The final tally on D-Street – the S&P BSE Sensex fell 330 points to 40,323 while the Nifty50 closed with losses of 103 points to 11,908. For the week, the Nifty50 rose 0.15 percent while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.4 percent.

Sectorally, the action was seen in the Realty, Bankex, and Consumer Durable index. Nifty Bank which reclaimed 31,000 closed with gains of 116 points to 30,749.

"Rating downgrade forced investors to book profit in a volatile market and rupee weakened to 3 week low,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services Ltd told Moneycontrol.

“Given the subdued performance of the equity market during the year MF inflows fell to four-month low while the premium valuation of large & blue-chips is not attracting new funds in the market,” he said.

As per AMFI data, the net equity mutual fund inflow in October declined to Rs 6,015 crore, down 7.3 percent from Rs 6,489 crore in the previous month. But, the MF asset base increased to Rs 26.33 lakh crore in October-end.

There was some good news as well.

Eicher Motors Q2 net profit jumps 18.5% YoY to Rs 570.5 crore.

M&M Q2 net profit dips 23.8% to Rs 1,355 crore, but it was ahead of Street estimates.

MRF Q2 net down 18% at Rs 229 crore

Bharat Forge Q2 profit rises 7.6% to Rs 245 crore

Top Nifty gainers: ICICI Bank which hit a fresh high of Rs 496, followed by IndusInd Bank, and YES Bank

Top Nifty Losers: GAIL India, Sun Pharma, and Bharti Infratel

Sectors & Stocks:

Sectorally, the S&P BSE Realty index rose 1.5 percent, followed by the Bankex which was up 0.64 percent, and Consumer Durable index rose 0.06 percent.

On the losing front, FMCG index was down 1.8 percent, followed by the Public Sector which fell 1.8 percent, and Metal index was down 1.7 percent.

Volume spike of 200-1000% was seen in stocks like MRF, IGL, Bharat Forge, M&M, NCC as well as Britannia Industries.

Long Buildup: IGL, Indiabulls HF, Kotak Bank

Short Buiildup: Bharat Forge, Siemens, Colgate Palmolive

Stocks in news:

Raymond: Raymond ended with gains of 20 percent on November 8 after the company demerged its core lifestyle business into a separate listed entity.

UPL: Shares of UPL ended over 4 percent lower on November 8 after steep fall in Q2FY20 profit, but global brokerage houses remained bullish on the stock and see 24-33 percent potential upside from current levels.

DLF: Shares of DLF gained over 5 percent on November 8 after the realtor found a place on the MSCI India Domestic Index. For the September quarter, the company posted 19 percent jump in its net profit at Rs 445.9 crore versus Rs 374.4 crore in the same quarter last fiscal.

Indraprastha Gas: Indraprastha Gas ended over 6 percent higher on November 8 after company had posted robust numbers in the quarter ended in September. The company's Q2 standalone net profit rose 74.5 percent at Rs 381 crore versus Rs 218.4 crore in the quarter ended in June.

What to watch out for the coming week:

On the earnings front, nearly 2800 companies will declare their results for the September quarter. Investors would watch out for NTPC, OIL India results on Saturday, 9 November.

Britannia Industries, Coal India, Hindalco, Motherson Sumi, NHPC, NMDC etc. among others will be out on Monday, 11 November.

Markets will shut on November 12 on account of a public holiday.

On the macro front, IIP data for September is scheduled to come out on Monday, while CPI inflation for October on 12 November and WPI inflation data will be out on 14, Thursday.

On the political front, Ayodhya Verdict will be an important event to watch out for apart from that some headway in Maharashtra politics will also be a sentiment booster.

Technical View:

The Nifty50 formed a bearish candle on the daily charts and a ‘Doji’ kind of candle on the weekly charts

On the positive side, Nifty formed a ‘Golden Cross’ pattern on daily charts where 50-Days Moving Avg moves above the 200-DMA.

The point to note is that Nifty closed below its crucial support of 5-Days EMA placed at 11908

Weakness in this regard will be confirmed on a close below 11850 levels as breach of this not only result in a lower low on price chart but also in a breakdown of ascending trendline, suggest experts.

A close below 11850 will take the index towards 11820-11720

For time being upsides may get capped around 12034 levels which is the intraday high of Friday

If the weakness persists, traders are advised to avoid long side bets and can consider positional shorts with a stop above 12035 on closing basis, suggest experts.

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First Published on Nov 8, 2019 05:43 pm
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