Sensex, Nifty likely to extend loss to second day - Key levels to track on September 16

Subdued start likely; expiry may stir volatility

Indian benchmark indices are set for a muted start on September 16, with early cues pointing to weakness. As of 7:50 am, GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,157, down 23 points or 0.09 percent, suggesting a soft open. The session also coincides with the weekly expiry of NSE derivative contracts, which could trigger price swings through the day.

Yesterday, markets took a breather after eight straight sessions of gains, with the Nifty50 slipping below the 25,100 mark. Despite opening on a flat-to-positive note, the index failed to hold early strength and ended in mild weakness. Broader markets, however, outperformed as the Nifty Midcap 100 added 0.44 percent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 0.76 percent.

Foreign investors were net sellers in the cash market, offloading equities worth Rs 1,269 crore, while domestic institutional investors absorbed some pressure with net purchases of Rs 664 crore.

On the macro front, India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) for August rose to a four-month high of 0.52 percent, led by higher food and manufacturing prices. While still modest, the uptick will be closely tracked for its potential impact on input costs.

Technically, the Nifty50 is trading near a key resistance zone of 25,150–25,200. A decisive move above this range could open the door for a rally towards 25,400–25,600, according to Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth. On the downside, 24,900 and 24,700 remain important supports, while a break below 24,700 could trigger a deeper correction toward 24,600 and 24,350, where the 200-day EMA lies.

Global cues are largely supportive. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged past the 45,000 mark for the first time, leading regional gains after President Donald Trump said US-China trade talks in Spain were progressing well. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.89 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.55 percent, and the mainland’s CSI 300 gained 0.34 percent.

Overnight in the US, major indices closed higher ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting later this week. The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent to finish above 6,600 for the first time, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9 percent to a fresh record high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 49.23 points.