Paytm shares fall 4% even as firm swings to black in Q3: Here's what brokerages say

Paytm share price

• Paytm shares fell 4.5 percent after Q3 FY26 results despite reporting net profit
• Q3 revenue rose over 20 percent YoY; UPI GMV up 35 percent in nine months
• Brokerages gave mixed ratings; Citi, Jefferies 'Buy', CLSA 'Underperform'

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The shares of Paytm dropped nearly 4.5 percent to a four-month low on January 30 after the company released its results for the October-December quarter of the financial year 2026. Brokerages have mixed views for the stock.

The shares of the fintech platform dropped to Rs 1,115.60 apiece, the lowest level seen by the stock since September 30.

Paytm Q3 Results:

Paytm on January 29 reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 225 crore for Q3 FY26, as against a net loss of Rs 208 crore for Q3 FY25. The firm’s revenue from operations meanwhile grew more than 20 percent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 2,194 crore during the quarter under review, as against Rs 1,828 crore in the year-ago period, led by higher payments GMV, merchant subscriptions, and distribution of financial services revenue.

EBITDA grew to Rs 156 crore, with EBITDA margin at 7 percent, despite higher promotional expenses for consumer growth and full impact of new labour code, the company said. It reported consistent gain in UPI consumer market share for 3 consecutive quarters, with Paytm’s consumer UPI GMV rising 35 percent in last nine months, as against industry GMV growth of 16 percent during the same period.

Brokerages on Paytm:

Citi maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock, but cut its target price to Rs 1,375 apiece from 1,500 apiece. The latest target price implies an upside potential of nearly 18 percent from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 1,168.1 apiece.

The international brokerage said that withdrawal of regulatory incentives will weigh on near-term EBITDA. Th stock had earlier seen a sharp decline amid concerns around Payment Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) that was extended until December 2025.

The initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aimed to encourage deployment of digital payments acceptance infrastructure like soundboxes and POS devices, through incentives. Notably there has been no update yet as to whether the scheme will be extended beyond 2025.

After the shares saw strong volatility following the reports, Paytm issued a clarification. It said that it received Rs 128 crore as incentive under the scheme for the six months ended September 30, 2025.

"In the scenario that the current Scheme is not extended or replaced, we expect to significantly offset the impact over time through a combination of higher revenues and more targeted sales efforts," it added.

CLSA kept an 'Underperform' call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 1,000 apiece. This marks a 14 percent downside potential from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 1,168.1 apiece. The international brokerage said that the firm’s Q3 results were in line with estimates.

However, it cut profit before tax estimates by 3-5 percent due to loss of PIDF income, which was partly offset by lower ad spend.

Jefferies kept a 'Buy' call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 1,450 per share. This implies an upside potential of more than 24 percent over the stock’s previous closing price. The international brokerage said that the firm’s Q3 results were slightly ahead of estimates.

JM Financial said that Paytm as continued its track record of delivering better than expected profits for another quarter.

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