MCX Gold poised for eighth straight quarterly gain, longest winning streak in 13 years

Gold prices have surged nearly 45 percent in 2025, marking their biggest-ever annual rally

MCX Gold is set to notch its eighth consecutive quarterly gain in the September 2025 quarter, its longest winning streak in 13 years, as investors pile into bullion amid equity market weakness and heightened geopolitical risks.

The contract has climbed 14 percent this quarter, extending a rally that began two years ago. If sustained, this will be the strongest run since the September 2012 quarter, when gold posted 10 straight quarters of gains.

Gold prices have surged nearly 45 percent in 2025, marking their biggest-ever annual rally. The metal touched an all-time high of Rs 1.09 lakh per 10 gram, powered by a global rush into safe-haven assets after a stock market slump triggered by former US President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Bets on multiple Fed rate cuts this year have further stoked the rally.

Recently, Goldman Sachs has forecast bullion could approach $5,000 an ounce if investors reallocate even a fraction of their Treasury holdings into gold, citing risks of political interference in the US central bank.

Investor appetite has been evident in ETF flows. Physically backed gold ETFs attracted $5.5 billion in August, their third straight month of inflows. Year-to-date inflows have reached $47 billion, the second strongest on record after 2020.

Rising demand has lifted ETF assets under management to $407 billion, with global holdings at 3,692 tonnes — just 6 percent below the all-time peak of 3,929 tonnes in November 2020, according to the World Gold Council.

Silver has also joined the rally. MCX Silver rose 18 percent in the September quarter, its sharpest gain in five quarters and the third consecutive quarterly advance. So far in 2025, silver has surged 44 percent, putting it on course for its strongest annual performance since 2010.

Analysts note that silver is benefiting from robust industrial demand, particularly in solar panels, electronics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, which gives the metal a dual appeal as both a safe-haven asset and a driver of long-term growth opportunities.

Axis Mutual Fund, in a recent note, highlighted strong investor appetite for silver, with record inflows into silver-backed products and bullish futures positioning underscoring confidence in the metal’s outlook. The fund said both gold and silver remain strategically important for diversified portfolios — with gold providing stability during uncertainty, while silver offers exposure to structural industrial growth themes.

Experts suggest that in India, meanwhile, consumers are adapting to record-high gold prices through profit-taking on old jewellery, while authorities are expanding hallmarking standards to make lower-purity gold jewellery more accessible. The upcoming festive season will be crucial in shaping physical demand trends, they adds.

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