MC Market Poll: Majority of experts believe markets could fall another 10 percent before bottoming out

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The benchmark Sensex is already down nearly 10,000 points or 11.5 percent from its all-time high touched in September last year, but a majority of market experts believe that the Indian stock market could fall another 10 percent from the current levels.

This is one of the key findings of the latest Moneycontrol Market Poll, which saw participation of nearly 45 respondents across categories including broking firms, mutual funds, AIFs, PMS and independent experts.

A huge 63 percent of the respondents believe that the markets could fall another 10 percent from the current levels before bottoming out. Meanwhile, 28 percent of the respondents said they expect the markets to fall another 10-20 percent from the current market levels. The rest nine percent of the respondents believe that we have bottomed out for the current year.

Since January 1, the Nifty 50 has corrected 2.85 percent and Sensex has fallen 3.2 percent.

Nirav Karkera, head of research at Fisdom said that the potential decline in markets could take into consideration factors like the Trump swearing-in, the upcoming Union budget, and India's inflation trend. The guidance on interest rates by the new monetary policy committee will also define how the market performs moving ahead, he added.

Also read MC Market Poll: Majority of experts not expecting hike in capital gains tax in Budget 2025

In a similar context, Prashant Jain of 3P Investment Managers said that looking ahead all eyes are on US President Donald Trump and his decisions on tariffs, taxes and deregulation among other things.

"His views on tariffs, taxes, deregulation, expenditure control of the US government, immigration, sharp focus on the interests of the US Economy and on fossil energy, leadership in technology and innovation clearly suggest that the world must brace for a break from the past," Jain stated in his newsletter.

"The markets face headwinds from factors like earnings resets, structural issues in domestic consumption demand," said Kotak Institutional Equities in its outlook for FY25. It added that global markets face uncertainty from uncertain policy measures of the incoming US administration and high geopolitical tensions.

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