Markets simply don’t predict the future, they’re also compensating for the past: Samir Arora

Samir Arora of Helios Capital

Samir Arora, founder of Helios Capital, said that he never believes that markets predict the future. They are also compensating for the past

Speaking at the Moneycontrol Global Wealth Summit 2025 on Friday, Arora said, “I never believe that markets predict the future. They are also compensating for the past,” says ace CIO, Helios Capital’s Samir Arora. He adds that other than five years, if you do one to three years’ analysis, “mid cap will look a little higher”

Similarly, the small cap returns for seven years upon calculation will be below 10%. And mid and large caps, will be in the 13 to 12% type range, as Arora roughly highlighted. He establishes the basis of this as ‘18 and ‘19 being severely bad for the markets.

“If you see two years as very bad -- you have a bull run… we see now shouldn’t be a new bull run for us. Some of it is compensation for the previous problems,” added Arora. On the other, for a seven to 10 year period, the returns would be similar.

He added, “I agree that you can't have a bull run. My definition of bull run is two-fold – One is, I should do better than what other asset classes are doing, which means debt, primarily. And second, we should do plus/minus better than what other countries are doing. From that angle it is still a bull run.”

After the sharp rallies he noted, “as long as you don't feel that you should reduce equity in favour of something else, because broadly it has corrected or that relatively a five-year number looks out of place… it is still a bull run.”

In the context of the aforementioned beliefs, Arora further disapproves of Shankar Sharma’s lake theory – “where you say water is safe”. “I disagree with that because what if the first part of the water goes below the ground and into the ground, and therefore, doesn't fill the lake given that it has dried up densely,” he explained.

"In fact, the first round of water is only to compensate for the lost ground water,” he added.

Meanwhile, he also says, “I am no longer bullish on the US,” with his global fund investment being 99% in Jan, and now, it’s 73% cash. Reasoning this decision, Arora said mid-Feb was a time when he chose high sell-off -- “Google, Amazon, types” (large stocks). This was because “the US cannot handle so many things together,” referring to the uncertainties and significant happenings, such as tariffs, doge, immigrant laws, etc. “There is too much confusion”, he said.