DLF, Sobha, other realty stocks plunge up to 6% amid market weakness, Mumbai property market slump

A robust launch trajectory and potential rate cuts are likely to improve sales in Mumbai going ahead. This shall benefit Mumbai-based players—Lodha, Oberoi, Godrej Properties, Rustomjee and Sunteck, said Nuvama.

Shares of DLF, Sobha, Godrej Properties, Lodha and other realty firms fell up to 6 percent on October 3 amid a market sell-off. The slump comes as housing unit registrations dropped in Mumbai in September.

Data showed that the number of housing units registered in Mumbai in September 2024 dropped 15 percent year-on-year (YoY) to 9,111 units, as buyers delayed purchases due to the inauspicious Shraadh period and expectations of a stamp duty reduction before the state elections.

The total value of registered units also declined 22 percent YoY to approximately Rs 14,600 crore. Year-to-date, Mumbai has registered 1.05 lakh units, marking a 12 percent YoY increase, with sales by value rising 6 percent YoY to Rs 1.5 lakh crore.

According to the Nuvama report, statewide, housing registrations in Maharashtra fell 14 percent YoY to around 1.08 lakh units in September 2024.

At around 2:40 pm, DLF, Godrej Properties, Sobha, Prestige Estates were trading up to 6 percent lower. Marcotech Developers, Oberoi Realty, Sunteck Realty, Ajmera Realty were trading up to 3 percent down.

Despite this slump, analysts at Nuvama believe that a robust launch trajectory and potential rate cuts are likely to improve sales in Mumbai going ahead. This shall benefit Mumbai-based players—Lodha, Oberoi, Godrej Properties, Rustomjee and Sunteck, the brokerage said, adding that consolidation is the driving feature of India’s property market.

According to Nuvama, the buoyancy in sales is expected to continue, driven by several key factors: i) ambitious business development goals, ii) a rise in project launches supported by improved cash flow, iii) interest rate stabilisation, iv) diversification, and v) increasing market share.

Additionally, rising wages, greater employment opportunities, and the return-to-office trend are likely to sustain strong home-buying activity.

"Mumbai-based developers such as Macrotech Developers(BUY), Oberoi Realty (HOLD), Godrej Properties (HOLD), Sunteck Realty (BUY) and Rustomjee (not rated) would benefit from strong housing sales in Mumbai," the brokerage added in its latest report.