"We don’t see any possibility of the Nifty FMCG index bottoming out soon," said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol. The index had given a consolidation breakout on budget day, but failed to sustain at higher levels and again tumbled below its short and long-term moving averages.
The momentum indicators and oscillators also suggest strong bearish momentum in the index, he said.
However, the Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities is bullish on JSW Steel and Welspun Corp. "Both have given a consolidation breakout along with the robust volume. The daily RSI is in a bullish territory," he said.
Is 23,400 expected to be a crucial support level for the Nifty 50 next week? Is there a possibility of the index surpassing the 24,000 level?
Following the Union Budget, Nifty staged a strong rally, marking a high of 23,807 before succumbing to three days of profit booking. The sentiment took another turn on Friday, when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate for the first time in five years, lowering it by 25 basis points to 6.25%. Despite this accommodative move, the index struggled to sustain at higher levels, indicating cautious market behaviour.
However, the 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) acted as a strong cushion, sparking a late-hour recovery, suggesting that buyers are still active at lower levels. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a bullish candle with an upper shadow, reflecting buying momentum but also highlighting resistance near the 23,800–23,850 zone. This resistance is defined by a falling trendline formed by connecting swing highs from the all-time high of 26,277.
A decisive breakout above 23,850 could open the gates for a pullback rally towards 24,200, followed by 24,500 in the short term. However, failure to surpass this level may lead to consolidation or a minor dip. On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 23,450–23,400 remains a key support zone. A breach below 23,400 could drag the index toward the next crucial support at 23,050–23,000.
With market volatility on the rise, traders should keep a close eye on global cues, institutional flows, and sectoral trends to gauge the next directional move. The battle between bulls and bears is far from over!
Are the charts signaling a continuation of the higher highs-higher low formation in both the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty? Will the banking index easily surpass the 51,000 mark next week?
Yes, charts are signaling a continuation of the higher highs-higher low formation in both the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty.
Coming to the Bank Nifty, it has been outperforming the frontline indices since the last couple of trading sessions. During the week, it has given a neckline breakout of Adam & Adam Double Bottom pattern. However, it has failed to cross its 100-day EMA level and thereafter witnessed a minor correction. Finally, it has ended the week at 50,158 level with a gain of 1.32% and formed a sizeable bullish candle on a weekly scale. The ratio chart of the index is marking the sequence of higher tops and higher bottoms, which shows outperformance.
Going ahead, the 100-day EMA zone of 50,600-50,700 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. If the index sustains above the level of 50,700, then we may witness a sharp upside rally up to the level of 51,300, followed by 52,000 in the short term. On the downside, the neckline zone of 49,600-49,500 will act as a crucial support for the index.
Do you see a strong trendline breakout in Chambal Fertilisers and Bharti Airtel?
Yes, the Chambal Fertilisers has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by above 50-day average volume. In addition, it has formed a sizeable bullish candle on a breakout day, which adds more bullishness. As the stock is trading near its all-time high, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum in the stock. Hence, the stock is likely to continue its northward journey in the next couple of trading sessions.
While Bharti Airtel has given a breakout on a daily scale on Friday but it has failed to sustain at higher levels. Going ahead, the zone of Rs 1,700-1,710 will be the crucial hurdle for the stock.
Are steel stocks showing strength on the charts?
Yes, Nifty Metal has given a Symmetrical Triangle breakout on a daily scale. Also, it has surged above its 20-day EMA level. Hence, we believe, metal stocks are likely to outperform in the short term.
What are your top two bets for next week?
The stock has given a consolidation breakout along with the robust volume. Currently, the stock is trading above its short and long-term moving averages, which is a bullish sign. The daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in a bullish territory, and it is in rising mode. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 985-975 level with a stop-loss of Rs 950 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,030, followed by Rs 1,060 in the short term.
The stock has given a consolidation breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by above 50-day average volume. Most noteworthy, the daily RSI has given a symmetrical triangle breakout, which shows strong bullish momentum. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 805-795 level with a stop-loss of Rs 770 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 850, followed by Rs 880 in the short term.
Do you see the possibility of the Nifty FMCG index bottoming out soon?
No, on a Union Budget Day, the index has given a consolidation breakout. However, it has failed to sustain at higher levels and again resume its southward journey. It has again tumbled below its short and long-term moving averages. The momentum indicators and oscillators also suggest strong bearish momentum. Hence, we don’t see any possibility of the Nifty FMCG index bottoming out soon.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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