See resistance for Nifty at 6180-6240 in Feb: Thukral

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Hemant Thukral of Aditya Birla Money, spoke about his reading of the market and his outlook.

Below is a verbatim transcript: Q: How are you mapping the February series? A: Let us see few data points first. If you check the Options position how it is going to progress in February series, the highest Put open interest (OI) is at 6,000. Very clearly, like January, the base would be around that 5,950-5,980 mark that is what writer is expecting. The highest OI across all Options is at 6,200 Call i.e. 38 lakh shares in February. So, clearly the resistance points would be again 6,180 to 6,230-6,240. If we see from the writer's perspective, the range that is predominantly coming out for the February series would be 5,980 on the downside to 6,186-6,230 on the upside. I would continue to feel that Nifty may continue to consolidate this way. However, the bias should be positive till it holds above that 5,980-5,950 mark. The second data point that the rollovers are suggesting is that it would be more of a stock specific activity because no single sector is seeing across the board long or short rollovers. Clearly we will see a month of consolidation more and stock specific activity will continue in February. Q: Rollovers on the Bank Nifty are a bit higher this time around. Any indications of how people are playing that? A: Like what we saw in January, if Nifty even has to go up to 6,200 the bets are again on the banking. However, individually within the sector the stocks have changed. We are again seeing flavour coming back to private banks. Public sector undertakings (PSU) banks are not suggesting the same strength in the rollovers whereas private banks across the board like Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank -- which are looking very good as mid-cap private banks --  are showing good rollovers going forward to the next series. Bank Nifty will remain the leading sector towards Nifty going forward with private banks showing more strength and more trading profits to be made there than the PSU banks. _PAGEBREAK_ Q: Titan Industries reported its numbers and you have got a strategy on that? A: The rollovers have started taking place on an aggressive manner. The way the rollover cost has pegged up, it is clearly indicating that now long positions are being formed. The stock is trying to find a bottom around Rs 258-260 mark and it has successfully rebounded from these support levels at least five-six times now. Unless and until, it breaks that I think one can go ahead with long positions with immediate target of Rs 285-290 on the upside. However, traders should keep a strict stop loss of Rs 258-260 on the downside. Q: Are you seeing any big position build-up on some of the realty names in your market? A: DLF, which has been commonly discussed, has seen the best rollovers. It is leading the rally. Having said that, from last three months, I have been seeing improving rollover cost in all the real estate stocks -- whether it is Unitech or an Indiabulls Real Estate -- except for Housing Development and Infrastructure (HDIL). HDIL has seen huge shorts rolled over in this series due to specific company issues. Apart from that, as a sector the cost is positive. So, I would see that trading interest is being maintained in real estate space. DLF should be preferred as the top pick and I will still continue to buy it. Q: From the banking space you like IndusInd Bank? A: Yes. I see the private banks having much more strength on the rollover front than the PSU banks. IndusInd bank yesterday saw a pick up of 26 percent positions being rolled in a single day and on a very high cost. So, the buying is returning back to this counter. I feel that in immediate short-term, we may see the stock going up to Rs 450-460 in coming one week. I would recommend to go long on IndusInd Bank. Traders have to keep a stop loss. I will maintain a stop loss on Rs 425. That is the range of support of IndusInd Bank -- I am not expecting it to break below that -- with a target of Rs 460. Q: From the large-caps which one is looking like the strongest rollover candidate going into February? A: As I just suggested, in private banks I would look at all the large-cap stocks like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank. The real estate hero, DLF has seen very good rollovers. The real interesting part would be technology, which we have not discussed till now. HCL Technologies and Wipro have seen long rollovers whereas Infosys has seen more of short squeeze. Infosys has not seen a follow-up long rollover. I would be interested to see how Infosys behaves today -- it still has a huge gap in the average rollovers and the position that has happened -- and how it progresses in February series. IT is main pack, which I will be loking forward. HCL Technologies looks stronger because it has seen long rollovers. However, both Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys are not seeing any rollovers. I would be interested to see how technology takes shape. On the stronger candidates, I will still bet with the private banks going forward. Q: Any particular stock on which you are seeing a large short rollover? A: Sector wise, I am still seeing pressure on Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) and Larsen and Toubro (L&T) in capital goods sector. The short rollover continues. National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) is another public sector undertaking (PSU) side which is clearly seeing shorts rolled to the next series. It is another heavy weight. We have got Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) which continues to be under pressure. So there are shorts, which are being rolled to the next series. Infrastructure stocks also have seen shorts. So, I will not even buy a stock like IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd or IVRCL, GMR Infrastructure Ltd, all have gone with heavy shorts in the next series itself.