India’s silver imports up 129% on price rise, supply concerns

Silver prices are expected to remain strong through 2026, likely staying above historical levels, though short-term fluctuations are possible.

• Silver imports surged 129 percent to $7.77 billion in April–December period
• China's export rules and rising prices boost India's silver imports.
• India pursues FTAs with Peru, Chile to secure silver, cut reliance on China.

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Silver is emerging as a key driver India’s import bill in the current fiscal, even as its total value remains far lower than that of gold and petroleum.

In December, silver imports jumped 79.7 percent from the previous month to $0.76 billion. Cumulatively they were up nearly 129 percent for the April–December period at $7.77 billion against $3.39 billion in the year-ago period even after the end of the festive season when shipments usually peak.

The sharp rise stands out against the broader trend in import growth.

Gold imports fell 12.1 percent in December to $4.13 billion, with a modest cumulative rise of 1.8 percent, while petroleum imports edged up nearly 6 percent to $14.41 billion, even as cumulative shipments fell 4.3 percent to $135.4 billion.

The surge in silver imports has been driven by a sharp rise in prices, closely linked to global developments.

China, a major silver producer and processor, announced stricter approval-based export rules effective January 1, 2026, limiting shipments to approved firms.

Prices had risen in anticipation of the move, while geopolitical events and safe-haven demand added pressure.

As of January 15, silver was trading at around $91.6 an ounce after hitting a near-record $93.7 the previous day, driven by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions and global market uncertainty.

Silver is expected to remain firm through 2026, likely staying above historical levels, though short-term fluctuations are possible.

The white metal has become more crucial as a key industrial input, with solar manufacturing accounting for about 17 percent of the global demand in 2025, up from under 10 percent earlier in the decade.

Electrical and electronics applications consistently make up roughly a quarter of demand, highlighting silver’s growing role beyond investment and jewellery.

The broader trade picture underscores the trend.

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in the first nine months of the current fiscal. Imports rose nearly 6 percent, outpacing exports, which grew less than 3 percent during the period.

In December, too, goods imports grew at a faster clip than exports, reflecting persistent pressure on the trade balance.

India’s reliance on China has grown over the years, with the neighbour accounting for more than 40 percent of the country’s silver imports in 2025, up from about a third in 2019.

China’s tighter export regime has heightened concerns about supply concentration and price volatility. To reduce dependence, India is expanding free-trade agreement (FTA) talks with major silver-producing countries such as Peru and Chile.

These agreements aim to lower tariffs and customs barriers, cut costs, and secure more reliable supplies for industries, including green energy and electric vehicles.