From richest man to world’s first trillionaire: The impossible math behind Elon Musk’s Tesla deal

Musk’s current net worth stands at $437.8 billion, according to Forbes’ real-time billionaire tracker.

On the surface, Tesla’s latest pay package looks like a king’s ransom: a potential $1 trillion in stock for Elon Musk, the richest man alive. If approved, it would make him the world’s first trillionaire.

To unlock the full payout, Musk has to remain Tesla’s CEO for a decade, hit near-mythic targets, and drive the company’s valuation from today’s $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion, something no carmaker has ever come close to.

Golden handcuffs, not golden parachutes

Unlike a typical CEO payout, Musk can’t cash out and walk away. According to the report by The New York Times, the shares won’t vest unless he stays at Tesla for at least 7.5 years, and the full haul only comes after 10. He also won’t be allowed to sell them for years, though he’ll keep the power to vote.

That makes this plan lavish on paper, but binding in practice. It forces Musk to commit his future to Tesla even as he juggles SpaceX, xAI, X, and The Boring Company.

The impossible math: Tesla as a nation-state

The scale of the bet is staggering. An $8.5 trillion Tesla would be worth more than Germany’s economy and almost twice India’s GDP. In other words, the carmaker is being asked to grow into a nation-state in its own right.

To hit the $8.5 trillion target, Tesla must achieve unprecedented growth. According to The New York Times, the filing lays out operational milestones, including:

20 million vehicles sold annually, nearly triple the 7.6 million Tesla has sold in its entire 21-year history.
1 million humanoid robots sold under Tesla’s Optimus program, which only debuted prototypes in 2021.
1 million robotaxis deployed, despite regulatory hurdles and widespread skepticism about autonomous driving readiness.

“This is not just a pay plan, it’s a moonshot,” Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities, told Bloomberg. “Tesla is essentially asking Musk to turn the company into an economy of its own.”

Building Musk’s empire through Tesla

Perhaps the most revealing detail comes from a shareholder proposal in the same filing. As first reported by CNN, some investors have suggested Tesla acquire a stake in Musk’s private AI startup, xAI, which recently took control of his social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

While the filing does not specify the size or cost of such a stake, it could fold Tesla into Musk’s broader web of ventures, spanning electric cars, rockets (SpaceX), tunneling (The Boring Company), AI (xAI), and social media (X).

“The effect would be to turn Tesla from an automaker into the financial backbone of Musk’s empire,” noted The New York Times, which first detailed the board’s letter to shareholders.

Shareholder skepticism and political distractions

Some shareholders have voiced frustration that Musk’s leadership has at times dented Tesla’s reputation. His public alignment with US President Donald Trump and frequent political interventions have weighed on the stock, according to Reuters.

Tesla is also under pressure from intensifying competition. Chinese giant BYD briefly overtook Tesla in global EV sales earlier this year, while US automakers like Ford and GM are ramping up their own electric lineups.

Leo Koguan, Tesla’s third-largest individual shareholder, has previously criticised Musk’s focus on X and politics over Tesla, calling him 'absent CEO' on social media.

The trillionaire question

Musk’s current net worth stands at $437.8 billion, according to Forbes’ real-time billionaire tracker. If the plan succeeds, he could become the first individual in history worth over $1 trillion.

That milestone would cement his dominance across multiple sectors, but also concentrate Tesla’s fate entirely in one man. As The Wall Street Journal observed in an editorial, the plan “blurs the line between rewarding a visionary and entrenching a ruler.”