Why M K Stalin is irked over delimitation amid a deep North-South population divide

Opposition wants to delay delimitation by another quarter of century

Delimitation is at the eye of the storm again, with a war of words erupting between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The idea of determining seats based on population figures has become a concern for southern states as their share in India's population has shrunk from 24 percent in 1971 to 19.7 percent in 2023.

However, a Moneycontrol analysis shows that South will not be the only loser in this exercise, West Bengal and Odisha’s shares have also declined over the last five decades.

While West Bengal was the third most populous state in the country in 1971 with an 8.1 percent population share, it likely slipped to the fourth position in 2023, with an expected population share of 7.1 percent.

Odisha’s share is estimated to have declined from 4 percent in 1971 to 3.3 percent, while Punjab’s may have come down from 2.5 percent to 2.2 percent.

Last week, Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin led a panel of opposition-ruled states which passed a resolution seeking a delimitation freeze for another 25 years.

“It is about our power, our rights, and the interests of our future. With the reduction in representation, our States will have to struggle even to get the funds we rightfully deserve,” Stalin said on March 23.

Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan had termed delimitation as “the Sword of Damocles.”

In 2001, the then National Democratic Alliance government, led by prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee extended the freeze on delimitation to 2026.

The 1973 exercise had increased the number of Lok Sabha seats to 543 from 522 earlier.

The new parliament can seat 888 members in the lower house.

Why are southern states protesting?

One of the main reasons southern states are demanding a pause on delimitation is their concern that they stand to lose the most from an exercise that prioritises population.

Tamil Nadu’s share in the population could have declined to 5.5 percent in 2023, as per the government’s projections, compared with 7.5 percent in 1971.

Kerala’s share may have declined to 2.6 percent from 3.9 percent earlier. The combined share of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana is likely to have come down to 6.6 percent from 7.9 percent.

Karnataka is better placed, as the states’ share in total population is likely to have fallen to 4.9 percent from 5.3 percent earlier.

Maharashtra’s share has also likely shrunk to 9.1 percent from 9.2 percent over half a century ago.

Going North

On the other hand, the share of northern states has risen. Uttar Pradesh is likely to have a 17 percent share compared with 15.3 percent in 1971, while Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Haryana all witnessed a rise in population.

Gujarat may also end up with an advantage, as the state’s share of India’s population likely rose to 5.5 percent in 2023 compared with 4.9 percent in 1971.