Despite a two-week dry spell in the first month of the monsoon season, data released by the agriculture ministry shows that the rural economy may be poised for yet another strong year, as early trends point to a pick-up in sown area.
According to the data released until June 20, the total area sown stood at 13.78 million hectares, 10.4 percent higher than the 12.49 million hectares sown during the same period last year. Rice and pulses have contributed significantly to this increase.
Rice sowing reached 0.13 million hectares—58.1 percent higher than last year—while pulses sowing rose by 42.2 percent, with moong accounting for most of the gain.
Coarse cereals, or millets, also witnessed strong growth, with area sown up 22 percent compared to the previous year.
On the other hand, oilseed sowing remained flat, registering a marginal 2 percent decline. Earlier this month, the central government halved the import duty on crude edible oils to ease the burden of high inflation. In September 2024, a 20 percent duty had been imposed on edible oils.
Cotton also appears to be on solid ground, with a 7 percent increase in area sown over last year.
Next two months crucial
However, experts caution that the performance of the monsoon in July and August will be crucial, as these two months typically account for the bulk of kharif sowing.
“The early high sowing trends indicate a healthy start to the sowing season. July and August are crucial, and based on the IMD's weather forecast, they are expected to be favourable for the overall season. Overall, the food inflation trajectory is expected to be benign. However, the spatial trends of rainfall need to be watched carefully,” said Paras Jasrai, associate director, India Ratings and Research.
An earlier Moneycontrol analysis found that food production has a higher correlation with rainfall performance in July and August.
While the monsoon made an early landfall this year, rainfall weakened during the first half of June, raising fears of a repeat of the 2009 season—when an early start failed to translate into a good monsoon.
However, rainfall performance has since improved. As of June 24, only 11 states were experiencing deficient rainfall, while overall precipitation was 4 percent above the 50-year average.
Reservoir levels also reflect this improvement. As of June 19, storage across the country was 38.9 percent above the normal level. The southern region, in particular, saw water levels at 95 percent above average capacity.
In contrast, reservoirs in the northern and eastern regions remained below normal, with deficits of 10.8 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.
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