India Cements Q4 PAT seen up 67% QoQ at Rs 94.3 cr

India Cements is likely to report a growth of 67% quarter-on-quarter in its profit after tax of Rs 94.3 crore for the fourth quarter of FY12, according to CNBC-TV18 poll.
 
Sales are seen going up by 21% to Rs 1,138 crore from Rs 941.5 crore during the same period.      

EBITDA is expected to go up by 22% to Rs 237 crore from Rs 195 crore and EBITDA margin is seen improving at 20.9% versus 20.7% quarter-on-quarter.

PAT figure will be impacted by Rupee Depreciation:

-In Q3FY12, interest included loss of Rs 13.8 crore on account of foreign exchange fluctuations

-Also company did not show Rs 12.8 crore as forex loss in the P&L account but opted to amortize the same over their tenure

-Import roughly 65-70% of coal requirement and hence would be impacted by depreciating rupee though will be relieved by slight appreciation on a QoQ basis ((No impact on margins as cement prices have cooled off))

Overhang continues to remain the high debt on their books which is approximately Rs 2000 crore

Watch out for IPL revenue of roughly Rs 25 million (versus Rs 155 million in 4QFY11 and Rs 35 million in 3QFY12)

PAT will be positively impacted owing to low base effect

Higher topline and better margins on the back of higher cement prices in South India owing to pricing discipline:

-Low capacity utilizations which have been hovering around the 70-75% mark have managed to keep the cement prices stable
-Volumes: Volumes expected to remain flat with a negative bias on a YoY basis (+13% QoQ) to 2.5m tons
-Higher Realizations: Stable pricing due to production discipline likely to drive 3% QoQ (around 12% YoY) improvement in realizations