Oil at $80? Rising US-Russia tensions threaten global supply, spark brent crude price surge forecast

A stronger US dollar has kept some check on prices, but that may not be enough to offset geopolitical risk.

Brent crude prices are poised to climb to $80–82 per barrel by end-2025, with short-term movements already showing signs of an upswing. Analysts cite escalating US-Russia tensions as a key trigger.

N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, told ANI that Brent (October 2025 contract) has already moved from $72.07 to near $76, with downside support at $69. He expects prices to hover between $80 and $82 by year-end.

“The momentum is being driven by the threat of US sanctions on nations trading with Russia. If enforced, it could severely disrupt global oil flows,” he noted.

What’s causing the oil market anxiety? President Donald Trump has reportedly given Russia a 10–12 day ultimatum to halt its Ukraine offensive. Failure to comply could trigger 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing oil trade with Russia.

That’s a massive threat to the global supply chain, especially considering Russia exports nearly 5 million barrels per day, energy analyst Narendra Taneja told ANI.

“If Russian oil is forced out, prices could spike to $100–$120 per barrel, possibly more,” he said, warning of a ripple effect on countries like India that heavily rely on Russian crude.

India may not face an immediate shortage of crude oil, thanks to diversified imports from over 40 countries. However, managing retail fuel prices could become increasingly difficult.

“Even if we manage supply, consumer pricing will be the key challenge,” said Taneja.

Similar trends are expected in the WTI crude market. Experts forecast a jump from the current level of $69.65 to $73 in the short term, with a year-end target of $76–79. The downside support sits around $65.

The oil market is already dealing with tight spare production capacity, and any sudden supply cuts, especially from a major player like Russia, could trigger a global oil deficit.

Even if Saudi Arabia or OPEC+ step in, ramping up output takes time due to infrastructure and manpower limitations. That lag could amplify short-term price pressures.

Interestingly, while Trump seeks lower oil prices for domestic political reasons, experts say the US can't boost production fast enough to calm the market.

Adding to the volatility, investors are closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision and domestic inventory data, both of which influence oil futures.

A stronger US dollar has kept some check on prices, but that may not be enough to offset geopolitical risk.

The recent US-EU trade agreement and extended US-China truce have stabilised some sentiment, but the underlying risks in the oil sector remain elevated.

If Russian supply is taken off the table and OPEC+ doesn’t increase production, the world could see a major supply crunch, pushing prices well beyond current projections.