Gold at Rs 4.4 lakh per ounce? JP Morgan’s forecast points to a red-hot rally for yellow metal by 2026-end

Amid growing geopolitical uncertainties, gold has once again become the favourite option for investors around the globe.

While 2025 saw an unprecedented rally, the trend is likely to continue well into 2026 as well. Although the rates have eased a bit, JP Morgan Private Bank says that gold may see a sizzling rally by the end of 2026, with prices potentially breaching the all-time high of $5,000 per ounce.

If we take this target in the Indian market and consider today's exchange rate ($1 = Rs 88.65), this means that the price per ounce (1 ounce = 31 grams) of gold may hit Rs 4,43,2500 per ounce lakh by the end of 2026.

This, of course, does not include taxes such as import duty and GST. If this assumption becomes reality, the price for one gram of gold in India next year may touch Rs 15,558. This target includes an import duty of 6 percent and GST of 3 percent.

Talking about yellow metal trends in an interview, JP Morgan Bank's global head Alex Wolf (Macro and Fixed Income Strategy) said that gold may touch $5,300 in 2026. The primary reason behind the anticipated surge is bulk buying by central banks in emerging markets. If this target materialises, it would mean a steep jump of 25 percent compared to current gold rates.

As per a Bloomberg report, Wolf said that gold as part of “forex reserves is still relatively small as an overall percentage” for many central banks, especially in emerging markets. “We still see them adding,” he said, even though the pace of buying may moderate because of gains in prices.

The Bloomberg report citing the World Gold Council data said in the year 2025, till September, central banks had added 634 tons of bullion to their reserves.

Last month, JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Damian had said that the yellow metal may go up to as high as $10,000 an ounce. While himself being a gold skeptic, Damian said that he will not buy gold. "I'm not a gold buyer — it costs 4% to own it," Dimon said this week at Fortune's Most Powerful Women conference in Washington. However, he added that, "it could easily go to $5,000, $10,000 in environments like this. This is one of the few times in my life it's semi-rational to have some in your portfolio,” he was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.