Buy UltraTech Cement; target of Rs 13800: Motilal Oswal

BUY

Motilal Oswal's research report on UltraTech Cement

UltraTech Cement’s (UTCEM) 3QFY25 operating performance was in line with our estimate, with EBITDA standing at INR28.9b (declined 11% YoY). EBITDA/t stood at INR951 (-20% YoY; vs. est. INR925). OPM contracted 2.7pp YoY to ~17% (est. ~16%). Adj. PAT declined ~17% YoY to INR14.7b (+14% vs. our estimate, led by higher other income and lower effective tax rate). Management highlighted that its domestic grey cement capacity is expected to increase to ~185mtpa by end-FY25 (including ICEM and Kesoram). The company is expected to post double-digit volume growth in FY26 vs. industry growth at ~6-7% YoY. The capacity utilization is estimated at ~80-85% on expanded capacity in FY26. With the acquisition of ICEM and Kesoram, the company’s capacity share is likely to increase to ~30% in the South region. It believes both assets (ICEM and Kesoram) have scope for improvement in capacity utilization.

Outlook

We value the stock at 20x FY27E EV/EBITDA to arrive at our TP of INR13,800. We reiterate our BUY rating.

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