Adani Ports & SEZ (APSEZ) reported a revenue growth of 15% YoY to INR79.6b in 3QFY25 (our estimate was INR75b). Cargo volumes grew 4% YoY to 113mmt. The growth was primarily led by containers. In 9MFY25, APSEZ managed ~27.2% of the country’s total cargo and ~45% of container cargo. EBITDA margin came in at 60.3% in 3QFY25 vs. our estimate of 58.6% (-20bp YoY, -150bp QoQ). EBITDA grew 15% YoY to INR48b (9% above our estimate), while APAT increased 14% YoY to INR26.7b (in line).
OutlookWe broadly maintain our estimates for FY26/27 and expect APSEZ to report 10% growth in cargo volumes over FY24-27. This would drive a CAGR of 14%/ 15%/19% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY24-27. We reiterate our BUY rating with a revised TP of INR1,400 (premised on 15x Sep-26 EV/EBITDA).
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