Rajasthan Elections 2023: BJP hopes for dawn of a new leadership, but has Raje got the message?

With ticket distribution, BJP unveiled a strategy this time to go beyond Raje’s key support base among the Jats

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had dropped ample hints that the party is seeking new leadership in Rajasthan. Since the 2019 Lok Sabha election, several incidents made it evident that the party was taking the age factor in electoral politics seriously. From the unofficial 75 years age limit, BJP was seen lowering it and phasing out from electoral politics even those who were 70 years old. BJP began speaking of preparing for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections and even beyond just after the 2019 verdict, which called for drafting younger leadership at the state levels.

Even those who still entertained the idea that the BJP wouldn’t make an enemy out of former Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje saw meaning in the words spoken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Chittorgarh rally in the first week of October. At the rally, Modi spoke of BJP’s “ummeed (hope) and ummeedwar (candidate)” was going to be the “kamal (lotus; the party symbol)”, which was interpreted as the party going to have no face but the party symbol in the elections. The most obvious connotation of this to political observers was that the BJP wasn’t going back on its resolve to push for the dawn of a new leadership in Rajasthan.

Since 1998, Rajasthan has been voting out the incumbent government. BJP strategists are counting on this tradition to continue this time too. They also count on the fact that Rajasthan is among the states which are truly the party’s pocket borough.

Even BJP defeats in Rajasthan have been narrow. In 2018, BJP polled 38.08 percent votes against 39.30 percent of the Congress. Within a few months, BJP polled a massive 59 percent vote share to win 24 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan. The data from these two polls gave clues to the BJP that the state was ripe for the party to decisively go for the leadership transition.

Vasundhara Raje Loses Pre-eminence

BJP announced the nomination of Raje only in the second list of candidates for Rajasthan. The first list had brought gloom in the Raje camp. But BJP had no intent to turn the party into a battlefield for its own rank and file. The leadership showed that the party was not excessively denying tickets to the state leaders who were known to be followers of the former CM. Thus, dozens of Raje followers bagged party tickets in the second and third lists.

In ticket distribution, BJP made it clear that the party had not forgotten the slogan heard loud and clear in the 2018 polls: “Modi tumse bairn ahi, Vasundhara teri khair nahi (No enmity with Modi, but will not spare Vasundhara)”. It wasn’t lost on BJP that 59 percent votes were cast for Modi in 2019 against just 38 percent for Raje a few months before when she was the CM face.

Denying a ticket to Raje lieutenant Yunus Khan, who was once known as the second most powerful minister after Raje in the BJP government, is a sign that the party has unveiled the template for a new beginning in the state.

BJP’s Three Musketeers

BJP fielding seven MPs in the first list was a bold experiment. Three names stood out – Balak Nath, Rajyavadhan Rathore, and Diya Kumari. They represent BJP’s bets on Hindutva, youth, and royalty.

Nath, a Hindu seer, has been modelling himself on Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. Rathore had been building a campaign against the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government in the state on the law-and-order issue for over a year. Kumari hails from an erstwhile royal lineage in a state with the tradition of ex-royals contesting elections.

With these three in the fray and Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat helming election management, BJP has given quite evident signals to Raje to bless the party’s desire for a new leadership to emerge.

Jat+ Social Engineering

BJP went into the campaign with Congress building a template for its caste census demand for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In Rajasthan, Congress’ core catchment base are the OBCs and Muslims.

BJP believes that there will be an upper caste consolidation against the Congress’ caste census plank which is aimed to push reservation in jobs and educational institutions higher beyond the current 50 percent threshold. Thus, BJP fielded almost 31 percent candidates from upper castes while giving the big chunk (35 percent) to the OBCs, and most backward castes (MBCs). With ticket distribution, BJP unveiled a strategy this time to go beyond Raje’s key support base among the Jats.

Importantly, BJP is aiming for consolidation of the scheduled caste votes (18 percent) and the party appears to be drawing comfort from the campaign of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati asking the people to punish Gehlot.

Brand Modi

Modi had been warming up to the Rajasthan election months before the polling date was announced. On Karnataka election day, he was touring the tribal belt in Mewar.

Since then, he has been regularly visiting the state to stir the poll pot. In his earlier rallies, Modi set the BJP’s poll narrative on the planks of “Red Diary (corruption)”, law-and-order, and Hindutva (Kanhaiya Lal beheading case).

While Modi built the poll narrative, the central BJP had taken command on the ground as leaders of the party from Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh were given charge of the districts months ahead of the announcement of the poll date.

Manish Anand is a senior Delhi-based journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.