West Bengal Exit Poll 2024: BJP likely to make big gains, may win 21-24 seats

The BJP aims at winning at least 370 seats on its own while for the NDA the target is “400 paar”

The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 21-24 seats in West Bengal. This will be a significant leap from the 18 it won last time. The Trinamool Congress, led by chief minister Mamata Banerjee, is likely to win 18-21 seats, according to News18 Mega Exit polls.

West Bengal, which sends 42 members to the Lower House, is a key battleground state in the Lok Sabha elections.

While the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is trying to continue its Assembly election performance of 2021, the BJP is eying to win 35 of the 42 states. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 18 seats in the state, which was perceived as a big win for the party which had little presence on the ground. Meanwhile, the Trinamool bagged 22 and the Congress won two.

This time, the BJP has a much bigger target nationally. The party aims at winning at least 370 seats on its own while for the NDA the target is “400 paar” For these goals to be fulfilled a higher tally in West Bengal is crucial.

The poll campaigns saw the BJP attacking the Trinamool Congress over corruption. The state government has been accused of corruption in various cases from teacher recruitment to ration distribution scams.

The BJP also attacked the Mamata over the Sandeshkhali episode and the alleged sexual harassment and mistreatment of women there. The BJP questioned the safety of women in the state. Towards the latter stages, the Trinamool also faced criticism over the Chief Minister’s comment that a “few monks” Hindu monastic orders such as Ramakrishna Mission and Bharat Sevashram Sangha were helping the BJP in the state.

In return, the Trinamool built its campaign around the narrative that the BJP was an “outsider” indifferent to the interests of the state. The Mamata Government accused the Centre withholding of central funds, especially for the MGNREGS scheme. In conttars, the Trinamoll government projected its welfare schemes such as Lakshmir Bhandar under which women from the general category are eligible to receive Rs 1,000 monthly and women from Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (ST) communities receive Rs 1,200 per month.

Meanwhile, it is a test of survival for the Left-Congress alliance.

One of the major contestants from the Congress camp is state Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury who is up against former Indian men’s team cricketer Yusuf Pathan of the Trinamool. The CPM has fielded a mix of experienced leaders such as its state secretary Mohammad Salim (Murshidabad) and Sujan Chakraborty (Dum Dum) and young faces such as Srijan Bhattacharya and Pratikur Rahaman.

The Bengal CM’s priority is to ensure that Trinamool fares better this time than it did in 2019. The Trinamool tally went down from 34 in 2014 to 22 in 2019. If the Congress-Left combine gains a couple of seats and Trinamool adds to its 22 Lok Sabha seats, it will increase Mamata’s clout in the INDIA bloc.

The BJP hopes to add around a dozen seats to its tally. Significant gains in West Bengal will help the BJP make up for losses in other states. PM Modi recently expressed confidence in an interview that the BJP will emerge as the biggest gainer in West Bengal. Its performance in West Bengal will play a decisive role for the party overall.