If exit polls hold true, Tamil Nadu may just be BJP's biggest conquest this election

BJP is eyeing inroads in Tamil Nadu in 2024 Lok Sabha polls

It is not often that the BJP will be happy to come second best in a contest. But Tamil Nadu in 2024 is an exception.

For only the second time in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is a contender for Lok Sabha seats without an alliance with either of the two Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK. Unlike in neighbouring Kerala, the BJP has won Lok Sabha seats in 1998 and 1999, first in alliance with the AIADMK and next year with the DMK, and also in 2014, at the head of an alliance.

In 2014, the BJP managed to win one seat, Kanniyakumari, and helped its ally PMK win another. Ten years later, it is in the same situation after breaking ties with its 2019 electoral partner AIADMK. Except that it is much stronger and the AIADMK is much weaker without its charismatic leader Jayalalithaa, who died in 2016.

The BJP is playing the long term game in Tamil Nadu, willing to sacrifice immediate electoral gains as a junior alliance partner for a slow but steady expansion of its support base over the years.

Going by the exit polls, its strategy is paying off very well. Lowering the ambition in terms of seats and raising it in terms of vote share. Thus, BJP's state president K Annamalai was focusing on a 20% vote share and just a handful of the 39 seats.

The News18 Mega exit polls give the BJP 13 percent votes, and seats in the Chennai region, the Cauvery delta region, the southern and the western belts. Although the DMK is projected to win atleast 36 seats, the real fight is for the challenger’s spot between the BJP and its ally from the 2019 election, the AIADMK.

Even a few percentage points more than the AIADMK in vote share would count as a victory for the BJP in its desire to emerge as the principal rival of the DMK over the longer term. Even one or two seats more will serve the BJP's purpose.

The calculation is that the political tendency will be towards polarisation with the DMK at one pole. A party that is placed third or lower will suffer erosion of its support base and yield space to the second biggest player.

The BJP is again hoping to win from Kanniyakumari and Tirunelveli in the south, where former Union Minister Pon Radhakrishnan and the defector from the AIADMK Nainar Nagenthran are contesting, from Coimbatore where Annamalai is a contender, and South Chennai where former Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan is in the fray. Vellore and Perambalur, where the candidates are AC Shanmugham and Paavendhar, both of whom run educational institutions, will be seen as bonus victories.

The BJP is also hopeful about the chances of its ally PMK in Dharmapuri where Soumya Anbumani is contesting and Ramanathapuram and Theni, where AIADMK dissidents O Paneerselvam and TTV Dinakaran are putting up a fight.

The AIADMK is being squeezed by both the BJP and the DMK, but its prime focus is to push the BJP to the third place and quell the challenge of Paneerselvam and Dinakaran, both of whom are laying claim to the party's political legacy. The party's best chances are in the delta and western regions that overlap with the BJP base. Karur, Kallakurichi and Namakkal are the seats that give it hope.

The News18 Mega exit polls give it 17 percent votes and anything from 0 to 2 seats. Four or five seats are enough to keep the party in contention for future battles, especially if the BJP is kept at one or two; but the AIADMK would also like to see the back of Paneerselvam and Dinakaran.