Lok Sabha Elections 2024: How Tamil Nadu electoral puzzle may hit BJP's dream to win 370 seats

Tamil Nadu stands out as a key battleground for the BJP in the upcoming general elections. (Representational image)

With the upcoming Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April-May, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has set an ambitious target of securing 370 seats, a significant increase from its previous tally of 303 seats, alongside a notable 37.36 percent vote share. Despite its impressive performance in the 2019 general elections, where it achieved victories in most northern and western Indian states with success rates ranging from nearly 90 to 100 percent, the BJP now faces a formidable challenge in states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi, among others. In these regions, where opportunities for seat growth are constrained, the saffron party is tasked with the challenge of expanding its seat count. As a result, spotlight has shifted to other electoral battlegrounds where the BJP aims to make further gains.

Electoral Crucible: BJP's Strategic Imperatives and Challenges

Amid the current political landscape, Tamil Nadu emerges as a key battleground for the BJP in the looming general elections. With a substantial tally of 39 Lok Sabha seats at stake, Tamil Nadu presents a significant opportunity for the BJP to fortify its electoral footprint. Currently, the BJP holds no seats in the state. The electoral landscape has, however, shown volatility in the past. Notably, the BJP's vote share in the state declined from 5.5 percent in 2014 to 3.67 percent in 2019, underscoring the party's uphill battle in the forthcoming elections and the critical need to enhance its presence in the state.

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Strategic Pivot: BJP's New Approach with the Rise of K Annamalai

Political analysts observe a strategic shift within the saffron party in the state, notably marked by the introduction of K Annamalai, a 39-year-old former IPS officer turned politician. Annamalai's emergence signifies a departure from conventional strategies, as he emphasises anti-corruption measures and challenges the prevalent dynastic rule, positioning himself as a fresh entrant in Tamil Nadu's political arena.

BJP's Visibility Amid AIADMK's Internal Divisions

Although Annamalai's 100-day journey may not have led to immediate and substantial changes, it undeniably bolsters the BJP's visibility within the state. This development assumes significance, particularly as the primary opposition force, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), grapples with internal divisions stemming from the legacy of J Jayalalithaa's tenure.

Annamalai's Groundswell: Propelling BJP's Rise to Prominence

Embracing a positive outlook, Annamalai's grassroots campaigns and proactive resistance against the DMK have infused the BJP with renewed confidence.. His adeptness in connecting with the masses and his readiness to confront the ruling DMK have unquestionably elevated the BJP's profile. However, the extent to which these efforts will translate into tangible electoral gains in terms of votes and seats remains uncertain at this juncture.

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Strategic Deployment: Targeted Groundwork in Key Seats

Plus, the saffron party has launched focused groundwork efforts in particular Lok Sabha constituencies, with prominent leaders such as Union Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting, L Murugan, setting up camp offices in the Nilgiris constituency. The BJP has identified nearly a dozen constituencies, including Virudhunagar, Ramanathapuram, Sivaganga, and Tenkasi, which are deemed favourable for the saffron party.

AIADMK Factionalism: Gateway for BJP's Expansion

More significantly, following the demise of Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK has experienced a weakening of its stronghold in the state, with the party becoming fragmented into numerous factions. This scenario has created a vacuum for opposition parties to capitalise on. The BJP has been actively working to occupy this space and expand its footprint in Tamil Nadu.

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BJP's Solo Flight: Prioritising Party Strength over Alliance Politics

It appears that the BJP is opting to forge alliances with smaller parties instead of the AIADMK, indicating a desire to evaluate its own strength in the state. Annamalai has emphasised that his priority lies in strengthening the party rather than seeking alliances. This confidence appears to be rooted in a perceived decrease in anti-BJP sentiments and the insights gained from the 'En Mann En Makkal' (My Land, My People) yatra, which aimed to evaluate the ground situation and expand the political base.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi organised a month-long event called "Tamil Kashi Sangamam" in his constituency last year, strategically timed ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, to underscore the enduring connections between Tamil Nadu and Kashi (Varanasi).

BJP Gaining Ground in Dravidian Heartland

In Tamil Nadu, a state deeply rooted in Dravidian politics, there is a palpable sense of optimism among BJP workers who perceive recent successes as indicative of the party's increasing influence in the region. A key highlight is the BJP's victory in four Assembly seats during the 2021 elections, a significant achievement given the prevailing dominance of the DMK in several constituencies. Particularly noteworthy is the BJP's win in Erode district, the birthplace of Dravidian luminary and rationalist leader EV Ramasamy Periyar. The  victory underscores the BJP's ability to make inroads into historically significant regions, signalling its expanding presence in Tamil Nadu's political landscape, opine experts.

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BJP's Uphill Battle: Social Base Deficit and Linguistic Barriers

Analysts say the saffron party lacks a significant social base in contested politics. Additionally, due to linguistic barriers, PM Modi's charismatic leadership may not have as significant an impact among the common people. The combined vote percentage of the DMK-Congress led UPA alliance remains around 60 percent. With such a substantial gap in vote percentages, the BJP faces a considerable challenge in securing many seats in the upcoming elections.