Kerala opinion poll 2024: INDIA bloc to win 14 Lok Sabha seats, NDA 2

Under seat-sharing pact, Congress will contest 16 seats in Kerala.

The INDIA bloc is predicted to secure 14 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win two seats, and the Left Democratic Front is projected to secure four seats, according to the News18 poll survey.

The News18 Mega Opinion Poll suggests that the NDA is likely to secure two seats in the southern state, where it has historically struggled in parliamentary elections.

The INDIA bloc is expected to receive a vote share of 47 percent, while the NDA is projected to gain 18 percent, and the LDF is anticipated to receive a vote share of 32 percent.

As the 2024 polls draw nearer, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is intensifying its focus on South India, with Kerala being its primary target. The party has already announced 12 candidates and is prioritising four Lok Sabha seats in the state, including Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur, and Attingal, where it has previously performed well, leading to an increase in vote share.

In addition to emphasising central schemes, the BJP is actively reaching out to Christians, who have shifted their allegiance from the Congress to the Left. Despite this, Kerala remains a stronghold for the Congress, which leads the INDIA bloc. The party’s prospects for the upcoming polls are robust, particularly with party leader Rahul Gandhi expected to contest from the Wayanad constituency, a seat he currently holds in the lower house.

Recently, the Congress-led United Democratic Fund (UDF) unveiled the seat-sharing formula for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Under this arrangement, the Congress will contest 16 seats, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) will contest two seats, and the Kerala Congress and Revolutionary Socialist Party will each contest one seat.

Kerala sends a total of 20 parliamentarians, and in the 2019 general elections, the Congress won 15 seats with a vote share of 37.5 percent, while the BJP failed to secure a seat but received a vote share of 13 percent. The CPI(M) fielded candidates in 14 seats but managed to win only one seat, with an overall voter share of 26 percent.