Delhi Exit Poll 2024: BJP may retain hold over national capital, INDIA may win 2 seats

Given Delhi’s status as the national capital, the BJP wields considerable power.

The BJP could retain its hold over the Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, according to  News18 Mega Exit Poll. It predicted that the BJP will win 5-7 seats in the national capital while INDIA bloc may win 0-2 seats. elections

The seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi went to the polls on May 25 during the sixth phase of 2024 general elections.

This time, all eyes were on the Delhi Lok Sabha elections for several reasons. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who is currently out on interim bail granted by the Supreme Court, faces a crucial test. Prior to 2013, when the AAP entered its first assembly elections, the electoral competition in Delhi had been a straightforward battle between Congress and BJP. The entry of AAP into the electoral scene altered the dynamics, leading to a three-way contest.

If the AAP-Congress alliance, it would be a significant boost for Kejriwal’s party, especially since its top leaders are imprisoned and the Delhi CM is scheduled to return to jail on June 2. The AAP has fielded its candidates in four seats—New Delhi, East Delhi, South Delhi, and West Delhi—while Congress is contesting in Chandni Chowk, Northeast Delhi, and Northwest Delhi. The AAP has not won a single Lok Sabha election till now. Winning even a single seat or forming an alliance would be considered a gain for the party.

If the AAP-Congress fails to perform well, there might be pressure from the BJP-led central government to dislodge the AAP-led Delhi government. However, Kejriwal said he will not resign. Many in the AAP believe that Kejriwal’s arrest has generated a wave of sympathy which could work in the party’s favour. The AAP reportedly has a distinct vote bank in Delhi, primarily comprising Muslims, women, and slum dwellers, who have directly benefited from the AAP’s schemes in areas such as education, health infrastructure, and power infrastructure. This could impact the poll outcome for AAP.

Meanwhile, for the Congress, the political landscape of Delhi has undergone shift since the emergence of the AAP. The once-dominant Congress has seen its voter base eroded by the AAP’s rise. The Congress opted for an alliance with the AAP and is contesting only three of the seven seats in the national capital. The critical question, however remains whether AAP supporters will reciprocate by voting for Congress. If the AAP-Congress alliance secures a significant number of seats, it could bring in a new era for coalition politics in the Hindi heartland.

Meanwhile, despite securing all seven Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 and 2019 elections, the party’s organisational strength in the capital reportedly has not been that strong. IIn Lok Sabha elections, a segment of voters, support the BJP but they shift towards the AAP in assembly elections. This election will be a litmus test for the BJP to see if Delhi’s populace supports Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Lok Sabha elections.

Given Delhi’s status as the national capital, the BJP wields considerable power. The Lieutenant Governor of Delhi, the Delhi Development Authority, law and order, and the transfer and posting of bureaucrats all fall under the purview of the BJP-led central government. The BJP has been trying to paint the AAP as a corrupt political entity.

Delhi elections have proven to be a significant predictor of the national outcome. Of the 17 Lok Sabha elections, a single party has swept through all seats nine times in Delhi.