Analysis: Can BJP score big in Phase 1 of Lok Sabha polls?

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The biggest festival of democracy begins on April 19 with 21 states and Union Territories going to polls in the first of a seven-phase elections to be held in the world’s largest democracy. Opinion polls have predicted a massive mandate for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but what about the specific 102 seats in this phase?

The BJP is contesting 77 out of the 102 seats voting in the first phase. According to an analysis by CNBC, the saffron party had contested only 56 of these seats in 2019 and won 39 of them. The Congress had contested 63 and won just 15.

The analysis found that it was a close contest between BJP and Congress in as many as 37 seats of these seats in 2019. The BJP edged out Congress in 31 of these seats.

With BJP now contesting more seats than it did in 2019, will it manage to repeat its success rate in the same constituencies in 2024? Here's a look at the prospects across the states.

Uttar Pradesh

In Uttar Pradesh, Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina (SC), Moradabad, Rampur, and Pilibhit, are all expected to witness a three-way contest with the NDA, opposition INDIA bloc, and the BSP in fray. A large part (37-50%) of the electors comprise the Muslim community whose mandate will be important.

Interestingly, in 2019 elections, the BJP and the BSP won three of the seats while the SP won two. According to some analysts, the BSP may not be the force it was, thus rendering the fight two-way.

West Bengal

Parliamentary elections in West Bengal will be keenly followed with the BJP emerging as the principal opposition party in the state. The three seats going to polls on April 19 are all from the north of the state where the BJP seems to be sitting pretty. Coochbehar (SC), Alipurduars (ST), and Jalpaiguri are represented by candidates who have a fair chance of retaining these seats.

Apart from these, elections would also be held for the lone seat each of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, and Puducherry on April 19. Congress currently holds two and NCP one, of these constituencies.

Maharashtra

The electoral equation in Maharashtra has taken a new turn with recent realignment of political forces. The breaking of Shiv Sena and NCP has lent power to BJP in the state, which was earlier left behind with undivided Shiv Sena going with the Congress-NCP-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, then ruling the state.

This new equation, and defections faced by MVA partners, has cast a shadow over the only seat the latter won in 2019. Chandrapur Lok Sabha constituency is currently held by Suresh Narayan Dhanorkar of the Congress who managed to wrest it away from the BJP in 2019.

Among others, Union Cabinet minister Nitin Gadkari is seeking his third term from Nagpur. The city houses the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Other seats going to poll on April 19 are Ramtek (SC), Gadchiroli-Chimur (ST) and Bhandara-Gondia, all in the Vidarbha region.

In 2019, BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena had secured victories in four of the seats going to poll, except for Chandrapur. Thus, advantage here for the BJP.

Bihar

The Parliamentary contest in Bihar will be interesting with lines drawn between NDA and INDIA bloc. Weeks before Lok Sabha elections were announced, Nitish Kumar returned to NDA. Earlier, Nitish had merged his JD(U) with the RJD and Congress to head the state government, but changed sides before the elections.

This time, the RJD would be eagerly looking at sending its representatives to the Lower House of Parliament after the dry spell of 2019. But the first phase of poll is heavily poised against it going by past records where the four seats – Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada, and Jamui – were all annexed by partners of the current NDA in 2019.

However, Lalu’s son Tejashwi Yadav and his allies are upbeat following the 2020 assembly polls verdict which made his party the single largest in Bihar legislative assembly and elected a record 16 Left candidates. The Left has some influence in some segments of the constituencies, but whether that will translate into votes is the moot question.

Tamil Nadu

The BJP has been trying to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu since after the demise of AIADMK supremo J Jayalalitha. The party is now trying a mix of caste and faith with the inclusion of S Ramadoss-led PMK. The saffron party feels this may gain the support of Vanniyars. Opinion polls have projected up to five seats for the BJP which will help in its aim to win 370 seats across the country.

Chhattisgarh

It is yet to be seen if the reversal of Congress’ electoral fortunes in assembly polls 2023 will affect its candidate in Bastar Lok Sabha constituency on April 19. In 2019, Deepak Baij had managed to annex the seat from BJP. This time Congress candidate Kawasi Lakhma is pitted against BJP’s Mahesh Kashyap.

The Bastar region lies under the guns of Maoist insurgents, of whom 79 have been killed in separate encounters till now. Just three days before polls, 29 Naxalites were killed in an encounter with security forces in Kanker district of Chhattisgarh. Three security personnel sustained injuries in the fierce gunfight that took place just three days ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Madhya Pradesh

In adjoining Madhya Pradesh, six Lok Sabha constituencies are going for elections on April 19. These are Sidhi (GEN), Shahdol (ST), Jabalpur (GEN), Mandla (ST), Balaghat (GEN), and Chhindwara (GEN). These seats are all in the tribal belt of the Mahakoshal and Vindhya regions. Of these, all eyes will be on Chhindwara, where former chief minister Kamal Nath is said to still hold sway. The Congress has not been defeated here since 1951, except in a by-election in 1997. Kamal Nath’s son Nakul Nath is contesting for the Congress where in a rematch after 2019, he is facing BJP’s Vivek Bunty Sahu. The other five seats are all held by the BJP.

Rajasthan

A fragmented Congress in Rajasthan will be fighting for 12 of 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan in the first phase. The party will be leaning on its INDIA bloc partner Amra Ram (CPI(M)) in Sikar and Hanuman Beniwal (Rashtriya Loktantrik Party) in Nagaur. The Congress is also banking on the Gujjar community. Following the Gehlot-Pilot divide, the community to which the latter belong, had supported the BJP in eastern Rajasthan in 2019. On the other hand, despite dethroning the Congress in assembly elections, the BJP will be wary of Jat support in Bharatpur and Dholpur districts, where they have been seeking inclusion as Other Backward Classes (OBC).

Uttarakhand

All five Lok Sabha seats in this state will go to poll on April 19. In 2019 elections, BJP candidates won from all these constituencies and looks set to repeat the performance this time. However, there are some reservations among a section of voters – especially former and aspiring soldiers – who are critical of the government’s Agnipath defence services recruitment scheme. Some among the electors are also unhappy over the incidence of land sinking in Joshimath.

In seats like Tehri Garhwal, Nainital–Udhamsingh Nagar, and Haridwar, Congress prospects may be dampened by the presence of other strong candidates, opposing the BJP.

Assam

Five out of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha constituencies will go for polls in the first phase. Out of these, Kaziranga, renamed recently from Kaliabor seat, has been with the Congress – from former chief minister Tarun Gogoi to his brother Deep Gogoi, and son Gaurav Gogoi – except some upsets caused by the Ahom Gana Parishad (AGP). But the delimitation may have changed the voter demography here, making it a viable proposition for the BJP in 2024. In Tezpur (now Sonitpur), and the rest, BJP candidates had won convincingly in 2019.

Other northeast states

Elections will be held in Arunachal Pradesh for both the Lok Sabha seats as well as 60 assembly constituencies. The BJP has an edge in both Parliamentary constituencies of Arunachal West and Arunachal East. In the former, in a rematch of sorts, Union minister Kien Rijiju is again in the fray against former chief minister and Congress leader Nabam Tuki. The latter lost by close to 1.75 lakh votes in 2019. Similarly, in Arunachal East, Congress candidate had lost to BJP’s Tapir Gao by almost 70,000 votes.

Of the 60 assembly seats, BJP already stands unchallenged in 10.

In Sikkim, the lone Lok Sabha constituency is held by the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) which had won 17 assembly seats in 2019 and formed the government under chief minister Prem Singh Tamang. Of the 32 seats in Sikkim Vidhan Sabha, the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) had 15. The SKM has parted ways with the BJP. With the Congress almost wiped out in the state, the BJP and the newly-formed Citizen Action Party could play a decisive role post poll.

In Tripura West Lok Sabha constituency, the dices are heavily loaded in favour of the BJP, which had defeated the Congress by over three lakh votes in 2019. Even the combined votes of the runner-up and its now ally CPI(M), together was less by over a lakh than that of the BJP candidate.

Other parts of the North-East going to polls include Manipur, Meghalaya, and Mizoram, where the NDA mostly stands ahead. In Manipur, the Congress lost both the seats, one to the BJP and another to the Naga People's Front in 2019, while in Meghalaya, it retained Shillong and lost Tura to the National People’s Party. In Mizoram and Nagaland, the respective lone Lok Sabha seats are held by the Mizo National Front and the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party, respectively.